MOSCOW, December 11. The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in January 2016 on the stock exchange ICE in London fell by 4.5% to $37,96 per barrel for the first time since 2008, breaking the mark of $38 per barrel.
The CBR expects the beginning of a gradual recovery in oil prices in the first quarter of 2016
IEA: the oversupply of oil will continue until the end of 2016 due to OPEC production
The Bank of Russia left the business without a new year’s gift, without reducing the rate
The dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange trading is in the range of 70 rubles, Euro is at the level of 77 rubles.
OPEC decision puts pressure on the quotes
On oil prices continues to pressure the OPEC decision on quotas on oil production. So, at the end of 168-th meeting in Vienna on 4 December, the Ministers of oil of the OPEC has not taken a clear decision on production quotas because of the position of countries that are not members of the organization. Currently the volume of oil production by OPEC members is estimated to be 31-32 million barrels/day. The previous quota was 30 million barrels/day. As was stated by the Minister of oil of Iraq, the decision on quotas was not adopted because of the position of countries outside the cartel. In his opinion, to stabilize oil prices, all countries should set limits on production. Due to the lack of such restrictions has dropped the prices of oil in the world up to the present level, stated the Minister of oil of Iraq.
The forecast of the IEA: oil price will return to $80 per barrel in 2020
The oil price in the international market will be back at $80 per barrel in 2020, then the tendency to a slight further increase. Such data are contained in the annual report of the International energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2015, which was presented in the Italian capital.
“We foresee price increases to $80 per barrel. But, of course, it cannot be excluded that the price of oil will remain at current low levels. And that would have implications for the oil market and the global economy. The IEA believes that keeping the price at $40-50 per barrel in the coming years, despite the benefits for consumers could be a problem,” said the Executive Director of the Agency, Fatih Birol.
According to him, the persistence of low oil prices will have a negative impact on the U.S., which will decrease the production of shale oil, will also hurt the economies of Brazil, African countries, Russia. Moreover, the persistence of low oil prices will reduce investment in the sector.
“When the cost of oil around $ 50 per barrel will continue to grow production and supply from the Middle East, which remains unstable region. Now 50% of all supplies come from the middle East countries, and this figure could reach 75 %, in 1970-ies”, – he added.
According to the forecast of experts of the Agency, by 2020 the demand will increase and will reach an average of nearly a million barrels a day. But since 2040, this growth will stop under the influence of rising prices, development of alternative energy sources, and reduce investment in unstream more than 20% in 2015.
The oil production of countries outside OPEC will peak by 2020 – 55 million barrels a day.
The supply growth will mainly come from Iraq and Iran even with certain risks to security of supply from these countries, according to the report.
The document also States that the global energy demand by 2040 will increase by 30%. And mainly, this growth is determined by China and India.
In China and Central Asia will increase demand for gas, making them the major consumers of this energy source. Whereas in the EU demand for gas will not exceed the peak rates recorded in 2010.