Moscow. December 15. The price of oil below $40 per barrel may persist long enough, said the Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov.
“We believe that there is reason to think that it could last a long time,” said Belousov to journalists on Tuesday.
The head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that the dynamics of oil prices makes it more urgent risk scenario with oil prices at $40 for the next three years, but the regulator is not going to adjust their estimates.
“In our baseline scenario we expect oil prices in the coming three years will be close to $50. We continue to consider an optimistic scenario with more rapid recovery in oil prices. Such restoration consistent with the forecasts of many international organizations, analysts and participants of the oil market”, – said Nabiullina.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov earlier suggested that in 2016 the price of oil in certain periods can drop to $30. “We didn’t manage to adopt the budget, we see that the situation with the macroeconomic changes. Changes not for the better. Oil prices we have budgeted $50 per barrel, now for about $36-37 per barrel. It is unclear what will happen next,” he said.
Siluanov separately said Iran’s influence on the market. “All the evidence suggests that low oil prices are likely next year to dominate and it is possible that during certain periods it will be, maybe, $30 a barrel, maybe less, we don’t know, – said the Minister. – Because a year ago if we were told that it would be below 40, everyone would probably just laugh. So you need to prepare for such difficult times for us”.
According to the Finance Ministry, at current prices for oil the Russian budget next year will lose about 2% of GDP, which in absolute terms is about 1.5-1.6 trillion rubles.