Moscow. December 15. The average price of oil in 2016 may reach $50 per barrel, said on air of the TV channel “Russia 1” the Minister of energy Alexander Novak.
“In our view, the average price can reach the level of $50. Of course, it should be noted that the market is influenced by production volumes, which are now implementing the OPEC countries, which in 2015 increased the volume of oil production”, – he said.
“As for Russian oil production, we have special conditions of production, most is produced in the Northern regions, this feature imposes the impossibility of short-term closure of wells with their subsequent recovery. Our policy is to keep production volumes at the level of 525-530 million tons in accordance with our energostrategia, we believe that if all countries that today are on the market, will implement the policy of not building and maintaining production volumes, demand and supply can be balanced by the end of 2016,” added the Russian Minister.
The head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that the dynamics of oil prices makes it more urgent risk scenario with oil prices at $40 for the next three years, but the regulator is not going to adjust their estimates. “In our baseline scenario we expect oil prices in the coming three years will be close to $50. We continue to consider an optimistic scenario with more rapid recovery in oil prices. Such restoration consistent with the forecasts of many international organizations, analysts and participants of the oil market”, – said Nabiullina.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov earlier suggested that in 2016 the price of oil in certain periods can drop to $30. According to the Finance Ministry, at current prices for oil the Russian budget next year will lose about 2% of GDP, which in absolute terms is about 1.5-1.6 trillion rubles.
Meanwhile, rating Agency Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 17% of the forecast price for oil in 2016. Analysts now expect mark WTI in the next year will cost $40 per barrel versus the earlier forecast of $48 per barrel. Score for Brent was reduced to $43 per barrel to $53 per barrel.