WASHINGTON, December 17. /Corr. Andrew Shitov/. The decision of the Federal reserve system (the fed) to raise the base interest rate of Bank loan is unlikely to have noticeable impact on the situation in Russia. This opinion was expressed on Wednesday evening, answering a question of the correspondent on this subject, all former senior staff of the fed, and now analysts at the Institute of world economy name Peterson in Washington Edwin Truman and Joseph Gagnon.
The consequences for Russia is not expected
The U.S. Federal reserve raised benchmark interest rate to 0,25-0,5%
The fed chief Janet Yellen “has stated that it expects minimal consequences” (spillovers), because “the markets were well prepared in advance, and many countries are now in better shape than last year,” said Truman, who at the time headed the staff of the Federal reserve, the office of international Finance and later worked as a specialized assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Of course, “there are countries with specific vulnerabilities, among them, apparently, and Russia, – he continued. But the immediate consequences, I’m not expecting, and yet in the first hours, their and there”. The specialist explained that talks about “the consequences concerning financial conditions affecting such emerging markets as Russia”.
In turn, Gagnon recalled that “in the past in situations where monetary policy has affected the interests of other countries, raising interest rates were definitely faster and larger than in the present case”.
Further below the chart
The base rate the fed has been raised from virtually zero to 0.25 to 0.5%. Yellen spoke about the prospects of its further increase in 2016-17. And experts from the Institute. Peterson is also primarily turned their attention to the future.
Kudrin believes that raising interest rates by the fed will weaken emerging market currencies
“The key issue is how quickly to raise interest rates next year, said Gagnon. – The fed clearly stated that it would carefully watch, that the economy is proved to be feasible… we’ll see, but I think it will be a long and slow process”.
“The main thing is how fast and how high” rates will rise to match the colleague said Truman. “It is particularly important – as quickly, he added. – Judging by the charts, is expected to increase by about 100 points (1%) per year. Personally, I would bet 75 points” for the year. This was later agreed and Gagnon.
“The key word, in my opinion, from now on the word “gradual”, said another participant in the briefing by the Institute. Peterson, a Spanish economist and investor angel Ubide. “Judging by the schedule, it means 100 points per year for 2016 and 2017, – he reminded. I think this is the anchor to which we henceforth will focus. And, I think, the fed will find it difficult to deviate far from this anchor, anyway, in the next six months”.
“Lift of relief” in the markets
Turning to other topics, Truman, in particular, noted that “the fed was well-prepared both externally and internally”. “Externally in the financial markets there was a “lift of relief”, he explained. – Internally – it is important that (the fed) was not disagree, although several weeks ago it was expected”.
Ubide also drew attention to the fact that, “although the decision is already “built into the price”, yet the markets reacted to it very positively.” “It has strengthened trust, especially due to the fact that the real economy estimates in the application were positive,” he said.