Experts: the lifting of the ban on oil exports from the U.S. will moderately affect the prices

Experts: the lifting of the ban on oil exports from the U.S. will moderately affect the prices


OSLO, 17 December. /Corr. Yuri Mikhailenko/. The removal of the 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports from USA, which is now being discussed in Congress will lead to moderate decreases in the prices of energy carrier in the near future. This opinion is shared by a number of experts from Norway, which ranks among the 15 largest oil producers in the world.

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Senior partner and Director of Analytics at Norwegian consulting company Rystad Energy Per Magnus AS Newsweek and the head of the analytical Department of the international consulting company Nordea Markets Tina Saltvedt believe that the first and immediate effect of the adoption of the law will be a further reduction of the spread (difference in price) between brands of U.S. crude oil and North sea Brent, which is subsequently remain stable at $2-3.

“Historically, the spread could at certain times to reach very high values, exceeding $20, as, for example, in some months of 2012, however, the lifting of the ban on the export of such a significant difference to be observed will be no more, said Newsweek in conversation with the correspondent of TASS. – The prices for oil produced in the U.S. oil would be more stable. The decline in volatility will be an advantage to the American oil industry. In the U.S., may increase slightly the level of production and activity in the industry in General, and this will lead to a decline in world oil prices by several dollars”.

Saltvedt, in turn, noted that increased competition between light shale oil from the US and Brent will lead not only to a reduction of spread, but in the short to medium term will continue to constrain growth in the cost of contracts for the supply of Brent. “If a lot of oil from the U.S. at the same time be thrown into the world market, which I think is unlikely, we will also observe a decline in prices”, – said the Agency interlocutor.

“The USA remains one of the major importers of crude oil, as needed to export infrastructure in the country is poorly developed, therefore, from my point of view, no significant amount of oil supplied from the US abroad should not expect”, – said the Agency senior analyst of investment Bank Pareto Securities Tron Omdal, adding that the spread between WTI and Brent is already extremely small.

Thus, according to him, both in the U.S. and in the world, oil prices will continue to fall for other reasons, and will remain at a record low in the next 3-6 months.

“Reducing the cost of contracts next year may reach 20% in excess of the 25% that we observed in this. The uncertainty makes the situation in Iran, renewable supplies. Prices are also affected by the risk of overflow of storage, said the expert. – However, production of shale oil in the US decreasing. Now they fall on 100 thousand barrels per month, and this is not the limit. Thus we can expect higher prices in the second half of 2016”.

New year predictions

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Omdal expects that next December the price of black gold reached a figure of $65 per barrel. Saltvedt also expects price growth, which according to her, on average, for the year 2016 will be $55 per barrel and in 2015. However, she does not venture to predict, when it will begin a “rebound”, but doesn’t think it can be expected before the summer. Nysveen, for its part, believes that the time when prices in 2016 will gradually go up, will come sooner than forecasts by most experts.

“We don’t tend to call in our forecasts the specific figures, but assured that in 2016 the market equilibrium is established, – said the representative of Rystad Energy. – It seems to us that by the end of 2016, oil prices will be somewhat above most predictions and surprise our colleagues-analysts”.

In the Norwegian oil and gas group Statoil ASA, a controlling stake owned by the state, impact decisions of Congress and the growth prospects of oil prices to discuss refused, having explained such decision by company policy. “We do not comment on not the events, as this may have an impact on the ongoing U.S. debate,” said the correspondent of TASS, the head of the press service of the concern Whip Rusted.

Oil from USA

Over the past two months, the house of representatives twice voted for the Republicans presented a bill lifting the ban on exporting American oil, but the initiative in both cases was not supported by the Senate. It is expected that the overall fiscal bill, which States the cancellation of this prohibition, Congress in the end of the week.

A ban on the supply of crude oil from the US abroad, in the form of Federal law, in force since 1975. This legal act was prepared after the establishment of the Arab States embargo on oil supplies to Western countries in 1973. Natural gas abroad, US companies can supply only under licences issued by the government. American firms are free to supply to other countries coal and petroleum products, including gasoline. Last year the EU openly acknowledged that Brussels is seeking from Washington in the framework of the transatlantic free trade area start exporting oil and gas to Europe.