Cleared from seasonality of Russia’s GDP in November fell for the first time since June


Moscow. December 18. GDP, cleared of seasonality, in November fell for the first time since June due to the reduction in oil prices, said Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev to journalists on Friday in Nairobi.

“Unfortunately the situation in November is slightly deteriorated and the trend that we had four months from July to October, in November it has not been confirmed. We have a negative result and industrial production and GDP with the removed seasonality,” said he the assessment of the Ministry of economic development in the economy in November.

The Ministry previously noted that the non-negative estimates of the seasonal dynamics of purified GDP remained for four months from July to October. In October was estimated purified GDP growth of 0.1%.

“Of course it’s the reaction of the economy primarily on the change in oil prices, that inflation is falling a little slower than we expected, which means greater reduction of consumer demand. But then again one month is very difficult to judge,” explained the speaker for the negative trend in November.

In annual terms the GDP decline in November, according to the speaker “about the same as in October”. As reported, in October the decline in GDP, according to the Ministry, was 3.7%, in January-October by 3.7%. By the end of 2015 the decline, according to the Minister, can range of 3.7-3.8%.

The November figures were worse than the preliminary estimates of the Ministry of economic development: last week, speaking in the Federation Council, the speaker said that cleared of a seasonal factor, the growth over the past month could be the same of 0,1%, and in September-October.

As reported, industrial production in Russia, according to Rosstat, in November 2015 fell 3.5% compared with November 2014, after falling 3.6% in October. With the exception of seasonal and calendar factors industrial production in November was again decreased (-0,6%), as a month earlier (by 0.2%). The fall in retail trade turnover, according to Rosstat, in November accelerated to 13.1% versus 11.7% in October and 10.4% in September.