Ruble trading in light plus, trying to move away from 4-month lows

Ruble trading in light plus, trying to move away from 4-month lows


On Friday afternoon, the ruble was little changed near the previous close, tracking the dynamics of the oil market. Attempts of a barrel of Brent to drop below $ 37 are replaced by rising oil prices.

MOSCOW, 18 Dec. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble on Friday afternoon fluctuated around previous closing, reacting to the attempts of oil to return to the area above 37 dollars per barrel of Brent.

The proximity of the weekend and the continued geopolitical risks do not contribute to increased market activity.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 13.45 MSK decreased by 0.25 ruble — to is 70.94 rubles, the Euro by 0.15 ruble — to 76,77 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

Attempts of growth

The ruble on Friday afternoon was little changed near the previous close, tracking the dynamics of the oil market.

Attempts of a barrel of Brent to drop below $ 37 are replaced by rising oil prices. Support the black gold has been the depreciation of the dollar, which began after it was published the decision of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy.

Regulator, as expected, kept the policy of increasing the monetary base in the range of 80 trillion yen annually (approximately 654 billion).

Investors also await Friday’s data on the number of drilling rigs that will be published later. According to Baker Hughes, published last week, the rig count in the US by end of working week decreased by 28 units, or at 3,79% and totaled 709 units. In annual terms, this figure dropped to 1184 units, or 62.5%.

The approach of the December tax period supports the ruble, and the bidders use the current high exchange rate levels on the major reserve currencies (close to the maximum for four months) to replenish the ruble liquidity by converting dollars and euros.

In the end, they fall in the range of 30 cents.

Forecasts and recommendations

To balance the budget at current low oil prices, the Finance Ministry will have a more aggressive spending of the Reserve Fund (amount of funds on the first of December was 5.3% of GDP) and to increase borrowings on domestic market through OFZs, says Sergey Kochergin from the Exness group of companies.

“To make a substantial cost reduction is difficult because next year is an election in the Russian Federation. To weaken the ruble to 80-90 RUB too hard — this will create risks of inflation and further declines in real incomes in Russia. While in the short term the pair USD/RUB will probably update the December high 71,19 and will flock to the high year — around 71,85,” said he.

If quotations of mark Brent for a week will keep above 37 dollars per barrel, so there will be less reasons to expect the dollar above 72 rubles in the near future, rate analyst “CSG asset Management” Alexander Potavin.

“However, out of the ruble currency in the cache is not worth it. The fact that this year oil closes strong decline, so the likelihood is very high that in the beginning of next year (January) we will see a continuation of this downtrend. This means that the pressure on the ruble will continue”, — he said.