VLADIVOSTOK, September 4. In the budget of the Russian Federation 2016 is laid on an oil price of $50 per barrel. This was stated to journalists at the Eastern economic forum, the Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov.
“(Laid) the $50 per barrel,” he said.
“I can say that according to available estimates, the consensus forecast, which is done by different organizations, oil next year will be around $60 per barrel. For the budget it is more conservative prediction – deal in the neighborhood of $50 per barrel”, – he said.
However Belousov did not rule out that the oil price could “fall” to $40 (per barrel) and even below. “But we believe that such failures will be short-term in nature. If they will wear for a long time, accordingly the government will react to this adjustment of the budget,” he added.
As reported earlier on the forum to reporters, Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev, the Ministry of Finance provides the budget of 2016 the price of oil over $40 a barrel. However, he did not specify the specific indicator.
Earlier the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the revised forecast of oil price in 2016 will be not below $50 per barrel. Last forecast Ministry assumes average annual oil price of $55 per barrel.
Conditions for investment
The Russian presidential aide also noted that the conditions when the key rate will likely fall below 10%. “I think that conditions for growth of investments will occur as soon as the key rate will be reduced approximately to the level below 10%”, – he said.
Belousov noted that the dynamics of investment are not directly linked to inflation. He recalled that in 2005-2007 the volume of investments was in the double digits, “but inflation was a decent enough”.
According to Belousov, the current expectation that the devaluation of the ruble will lead to inflation are incorrect. I think now the expectation that the devaluation will cause inflation is misguided, because our prices are already largely played the expected weakening of the ruble. There are calculations about it,” said Belousov.
He added that if the ruble to the dollar stabilized in a range in which it is now 65-70 rubles per dollar, someone in Russia will not have problems with inflation.
East economic forum. Chronicle of events. 4 September