Moscow. December 22. American Bank Goldman Sachs has improved the forecast prices for sugar and cocoa beans on the background of adverse weather conditions, caused by natural phenomenon El niño, according to Bloomberg.
The price forecast for cocoa for the next 3, 6 and 12 months increased from $3 per ton to $3.2 thousand per ton. According to the Bank experts, the effect of El niño, which may become the strongest over the past half century, will support the volatility in the market in the next few months, and the probability of price growth will be higher than the chances decrease.
According to analysts, barring any other adverse weather events, growth in world demand is not enough to ensure a stable deficit in the cocoa market.
Meanwhile, the sugar market Goldman Sachs noted increased risks to supply in the short term and increased the price forecast for the next 3 months with 13 to 14 cents per pound.
Assessment of the value of sugar for six months and a year left at 13 cents a pound, because, according to analysts, weakness of the Brazilian real will spur the export of this raw material from the country.
The Bank also believes that on the background of a stable supply of corn will not rise above $4 per bushel next year and will cost an average of $3.75 per bushel.
In addition, Goldman Sachs expects the average price of soya beans in the next 12 months will be $8,75 per bushel, while maintaining a bearish risks because of the possibility of rising supply from Brazil.
In General economists think that current weather conditions characterized by abnormally high temperature in the United States and Europe and increased aridity in Asia, are more likely to put additional pressure on the quotes of energy carriers, rather than to boost prices of agricultural products.
According to the forecast of the world meteorological organization, the weather phenomenon El niño will continue to grow until the end of the year. In the latest statement by the WMO reports that El Nino 2015 will be among the three strongest southern oscillation since 1950.