By 2030 the demand for oil will be $ 96,1 million barrels, according to the annual forecast of the Organization of countries-exporters of oil. The demand for coal and gas, which occupies in the global energy mix currently second and third respectively, will grow at a faster rate.
MOSCOW, 23 Dec. Natural gas will overtake oil in the global energy mix and by 2040 will become the most popular energy source in the world, according to the annual forecast of the Organization of countries-exporters of oil (OPEC) World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2015.
Under the baseline scenario, by 2020 the world demand for oil will be $ 90,1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030 — 96,1 million barrels. By 2040 this will rise to 100.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. However, despite the increased demand, in General the global energy mix the share of this type of energy will be reduced to 25.2 per cent by 2040, with 31.5 per cent in 2013.
The demand for coal and gas, which occupies in the global energy mix currently second and third respectively, will grow at a faster rate. Thus, the demand for coal in 5 years will grow up to 84.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and to 98.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2040 (1% per year). The share of coal in the global energy mix by the end of the forecast period will make up 24.6% from 28.4 percent two years ago.
The growth in gas demand will be more rapid and 2.4% per year, which will allow this energy source to 2040 to rise from third to first place in the global energy mix. So, the demand for “blue fuel” by 2020 will increase, according to OPEC, to 69.1 million barrels against of 59.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2013. By 2030 the figure will be 87.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 111.5 million barrels by 2040. The share in the global energy mix will grow to 27.9% by the end of the forecast period, from 22.1% two years ago.
While the most rapid growth will occur in developing countries. These countries are projected to become the largest consumers of gas by around 2022. In developing Asia, especially China, account for most of the expected growth in gas demand by 2040. While Asia is still heavily dependent on coal, the latest measures to reduce emissions in the region support the use of natural gas, the report said.
At the same time the fastest pace of demand growth in the 2013-2040 years, experts predict that OPEC will showcase renewable energy, mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy. The demand for these energy resources will grow by 7.6% per year. “However, given the current low level of demand (2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and the share of 0.9% — ed.), the share of these types of energy sources by 2040 will be just 4.3%,” reads the report.
The production of liquid hydrocarbons
Total world liquids production — crude oil and condensate, under the baseline scenario of the report by OPEC, by 2020 will increase up to 97.6 million barrels per day, up to 104,4 million barrels per day by 2030 and up to 110 million barrels per day by 2040.
The share of oil of member countries of OPEC in world supply of liquid hydrocarbons by the end of the forecast period will be 37%, or 40.7 million barrels per day (compared to 31 million barrels per day in 2015). The indicator has increased compared to last year’s WOO report 2014, where the share of OPEC is expected at the level of 33%.
In contrast to the constant growth of production in the OPEC countries, the production of liquid hydrocarbons in the countries outside the organization until 2025 will increase to 61.5 million barrels a day from 57.4 million barrels per day in 2015 and then begin to decline to 59.7 million barrels per day by 2040. The main reduction will be in oil production, which by 2025 will increase to 44.4 million barrels a day from 43.2 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to decline to 39.5 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period.
Similar dynamics for the extraction of liquid hydrocarbons, as analysts expect OPEC will be observed in OECD countries, where production in 10 years will grow to 26.6 million barrels per day, and then will drop to 25.8 million barrels per day by 2040.
2025 will be a turning point for the extraction of tight oil in the U.S. And Canada. In the next decade, according to OPEC, production will increase to 5.3 million barrels a day, and then to fall to 4.6 million barrels per day by 2040.
The prices in the baseline scenario
Experts of the OPEC in the calculation of the baseline scenario development of the market focused on the average price oil “baskets” the OPEC in 2015 to $ 55 per barrel. In the future, under forecasts of experts, the nominal value will show an annual increase of 5 dollars per barrel and will reach by 2020 the level of 80 dollars per barrel. Actual prices may reach a level of 70,7 USD per barrel by 2020 in 2014 prices.
“This trend reflects the gradual improvement in market conditions, as rising demand and a slower than previously expected, increasing supplies from countries outside OPEC, will eliminate the existing oversupply (oil — ed.) and will lead to a more balanced market,” the report notes.
In the future the real price oil “baskets” the OPEC can reach the level of 95 dollars per barrel by 2040. The nominal price may rise to $ 123 by the year 2030 and above $ 160 by 2040.
The volume of oil flows between the seven major regions in the Medium term will remain at 36 million barrels per day, before will grow to more than 44 million barrels per day by 2040. The forecasts underlined the continuing role of OPEC in the Middle East as largest oil exporter. “Despite the level of oil exports from the region in the medium term, largely due to the rapid growth of refining capacity in the region by 2020, the total amount of oil exports from the Middle East, is expected to reach by the year 2040, 24 million barrels per day, which is 6 million barrels a day more than in 2013,” reads the report.
Oil exports from Latin America, Russia and the Caspian region is expected to remain stable.
In the case of the completion of the planned expansion of the pipeline system, oil exports from Russia and Caspian countries in the Asia-Pacific region could triple by the end of the forecast period in comparison with 2013.
“During the same period, exports to Europe is expected to be significantly reduced, with more than 5 million barrels per day in 2013 to about 3 million barrels per day by 2040,” notes WOO in 2015.
The export of “black gold” from Africa will decline in the long term due to the growth of domestic consumption.
The most notable, according to OPEC, the decline in imports will be in the USA and Canada, to 4.6 million barrels per day by 2040, from 5.8 million barrels per day in 2013.
The largest importer of oil until 2040, according to experts of the OPEC, will be the Asia-Pacific region. The importing region will grow by approximately 11.5 million barrels per day from 2013-2040 year to 30 million barrels per day by 2040.
In the period 2015-2020 additional volumes of oil refining capacities in the world will amount to 7.1 million barrels per day. Major increase is expected in the middle East, in China and other Asian countries.
Last year the indicator was expected at level of 8.3 million barrels for 2014-2019. The reduction of forecast volume of additional capacity is associated with low oil prices, which forced the company to postpone some projects.
At the same time, the report notes that in the future, there will be excess refining capacity, which will need to be addressed in order to balance the market.
“In last year’s report it was noted that the need to reduce refinery capacity is about 5 million barrels per day in the period 2014-2020. In 2014, capacity was reduced by 1.2 million barrels a day, so from 2015-2020, they will have to close down refining capacity to 3.8 million barrels per day,” the report said.