VIENNA, 23 December. The nominal price of “oil basket” OPEC will exceed $160 per barrel and global demand for oil will increase by 20% by 2040. This is stated in the published on 23 December OPEC world oil Outlook up to 2040 (World Oil Outlook).
The OPEC basket includes 12 varieties of middle Eastern, African and Latin American oil. The price of a barrel of this oil at 20 December was $30,74 per barrel.
Thus in OPEC say that the price of $160 per barrel is not a forecast, but merely the assumption that an organization uses for the baseline scenario the dynamics of supply and demand in the oil market in the long term.
Oil prices can begin to grow through the year, the Executive Director of the IEA
Global demand for oil, according to the forecast, OPEC will increase by 2040, to 18 million barrels per day compared to 2014 and reach 109,8 million barrels per day. OPEC also raised its forecast for oil demand in 2020 to 97,4 million barrels per day with 96.9 million barrels per day over last year’s forecast.
The growth of demand will take place against the background of growth of world population from 7.2 billion people in 2014 to 9 billion in 2040. Furthermore, OPEC predicts that the global economy will more than triple in size over the next 25 years and in comparison with 2014 growth of world GDP in 2040 will amount to 244%. The average annual growth rate of the world economy up to 2040, as predicted by OPEC, will reach 3.5%.
Oil production in Russia will remain stable with a slight increase
Oil production in Russia will remain stable with a slight increase to 10.8 million barrels per day by 2040, according to the OPEC forecast.
Thus, the General oil production in the Russian Federation, in the reference scenario OPEC will remain at the level of 10.6 million barrels per day in the medium term until 2020, and by 2025 will reach 10.7 million barrels per day, continuing the growth until the year 2040 to around 10.8 million barrels per day.
Novak believes low oil prices are a long-term trend
According to experts of the OPEC, lower oil prices and sanctions against Russia from the EU and the US have little influence on the dynamics of oil production in the Russian Federation.
The fall of quotations Brent from the highs of June 2014 close to 70%. Earlier in December, Brent crude dropping to its lowest level since 2004, falling to $36 a barrel. For comparison, in December 2008 the price of Brent crude fell to $36,2 per barrel, down 75% in 5 months.
Oil prices accelerated their decline after the OPEC meeting on December 4. According to the results of 168-th meeting in Vienna Ministers of oil of the OPEC has not taken a clear decision on production quotas because of the position of countries that are not members of the organization. Currently the volume of oil production by OPEC members is estimated to be 31-32 million barrels per day. The previous quota was 30 million barrels a day.
The global oil industry until the year 2040 will require about $10 trillion
In the U.S. lifted a ban on the export of American oil, which operated for 40 years
Necessary volume of investments into the oil industry up to 2040 is about $10 trillion, according to OPEC.
Such investments in the oil industry, according to experts of the OPEC, will be able to supply increasing global demand for oil in the next 25 years. In particular, investment in the upstream sector of oil could reach $7.2 trillion. Most of these funds, according to the forecast, OPEC will invest in countries outside the organization, and annual average volume of these investments will amount to about $250 billion a year. In this case, the OPEC countries till 2020 will have to annually invest in the production of more than $40 billion and from 2020 to 2040 – $60 billion a year. Required until 2040, investments in the sector of oil refining and marketing of petroleum products amount to $2.7 trillion, say in OPEC.
Oil prices for 30 years