Russia will see additional volumes of supplies through the production of stranded oil in the 2020-2040 period, according to the annual forecast of OPEC.
MOSCOW, 21 Dec. Liquids production in Russia after the local peak 2014-2015 may fall to 10.6 million barrels a day, but then to rise by 2035 to 10.8 million barrels per day and hold at this level until at least 2040, according to the annual forecast of the Organization of countries-exporters of oil (OPEC) World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2015.
In particular, the baseline scenario of development of the market in 2016, experts expect a reduction in the production of liquid hydrocarbons (oil and condensate) in the Russian Federation to 10.6 million barrels per day from the level in 2015 10.7 million. This level will be kept until 2020. By 2025, the production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia will revert to 10.7 million barrels per day and will reach 10.8 million by 2035, which will last until the end of the forecast period 2040.
“The total production volume in Russia increased for several years. He rose from 10.3 million barrels per day in 2010 to 10.7 million barrels per day in 2014. Probably the impact of lower oil prices and U.S. sanctions and an EU trend growth (production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia — ed.) will remain small,” the analysts said OPEC.
For comparison, the production of liquid hydrocarbons in the U.S. in 2016, according to OPEC, will rise to 12.7 million barrels per day to 12.5 million barrels per day in 2015. By 2020 this figure will reach 13.8 million barrels per day and will return to the level at 12.4 million barrels per day by 2040.
With regard to the extraction of tight oil, the OPEC forecasts of experts, in Russia this figure will increase to 0.18 million barrels per day by 2025 and 0.4 million barrels per day by 2040. Meanwhile, the U.S. production of tight oil by 2040, expected to reach 4.16 million barrels a day.
“Russia will see additional volumes of supplies through the production of stranded oil in the period 2020-2040. However, by the end of the forecast period this trend will begin to counteract the natural production decline in Mature fields with reserves of traditional hydrocarbons,” the report notes.