According to the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased to 70,02 of the ruble, the Euro – to 76,67 of the ruble against the background of oil prices in the region of 38 dollars per barrel of Brent.
MOSCOW, 24 Dec. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and the Euro fluctuated in the evening in the red by adjusting the growth environment, despite the attempts of the oil out to 38 dollars per barrel of Brent.
The approach of the long Christmas and new year weekend, pushing market players to increase long positions on the major reserve currencies to reduce investment risks. The price of oil grows above 2.6 thousand rubles.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.33 MSK increased by 0.22 ruble — to 70,02 of the ruble, the Euro — 0.49 ruble — to 76,67 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble has gone into negative
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro during the session on Thursday mostly declined. Inertial growth could be observed only in the beginning of the day. The attempts of the oil price out to around 38 dollars morning supported the strengthening of the ruble.
However, these attempts had no success, the day oil went down from local maxima. As a result, the ruble began to be adjusted downward, and the dollar once again returned its round level of 70 rubles, Euro – 77 rubles.
Some support the ruble had the statements of the head of the Ministry of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, in particular, that the probability of execution in 2016 stress scenario the Central Bank with oil priced at 35 dollars per barrel is low.
However, before the weekend market players decided to increase currency positions, which kept the pressure on the ruble.
In the end, in the evening, oil rose slightly and fixed above the level of 2.6 thousand.
Forecasts and recommendations
The peak of tax payments in the budget is expected tomorrow, after which the demand for rubles may be just a little lower, estimates Ivan Kopeikin from “BCS Express”.
“However, the volatility and volume in financial markets continues to decline on the background of Christmas and new year’s holidays. So by the end of this year the strong exchange rate movements we might not see”, — he added.
Most likely, the reversal of the oil market has held up, and after the Christmas holidays, the oil will continue to grow, and the rouble will grow, according to Alexei Mikheyev from the Bank “VTB 24”.
Iranian oil, which will hit the markets in early January, no one scare me, because already included in the price. The reversal is even more clearly visible in WTI crude oil, which has already surpassed the price of Brent crude due to the export authorization from the United States. But no disaster for Brent, as you can see, has not happened. The U.S. still imported 7.2 million barrels of oil per day produced against 9.2 million a day, says analyst.
“States import oil with a higher content of heavy fractions for the needs of industry, and the “easy” oil they have excess, and from it they started to get rid of. For this reason, it is likely that commercial oil stocks in the USA will begin to decline in the coming weeks and it will be a long-term trend. Since Russia exports oil with a high content of heavy residue and high sulfur content, impact from oil exports from the U.S. will not be directed at it”, — said Mikheev.