Moscow. December 24. The Federal reserve can in 2016 to tighten the conditions of the stress test of U.S. banks and working in the U.S. subsidiaries of foreign FIS of the risks associated with the collapse of oil prices and worsens the Outlook not only energy, but also financial companies, the Financial Times writes.
OPEC on Wednesday downgraded the long-term projections of oil demand, declaring that it did not expect the prices return to $100 a barrel until at least 2040.
This week the price of U.S. oil fell below $36 per barrel, and on Thursday still 55% below the level reached in October 2014, when published scripts of the previous round of stress tests by the fed. As one of the macroeconomic components of the pessimistic scenario provided for a one-time drop in oil prices by 68% at some stage in the period up to the end of 2017. However, the fed last time have not checked what happens with the credit portfolios of banks in the case of such a sharp reduction in price of energy carriers.
Lately American banks, including the largest mortgage lender in the country Wells Fargo, were more likely to talk about the dangers of low oil prices, because such a situation may deprive exploration and mining companies oil and gas industry the likelihood of repayment of loans. In November, US regulators have warned that a default now threatens five times more oil and gas companies than a year ago.
The fed has not commented on scenarios of future stress tests, which should be provided to all working in U.S. banks with assets of at least $50 billion.
The experts – from Michael Aleksa from PwC to Jason Goldberg of Barclays – believe that the next time the fed would include in the script is more significant and prolonged fall in oil prices.
The fall in oil prices by 70% from the current level means about $10 per barrel, and below the fed’s will not go, says KBW analyst Brian Kleinhenz. According to him, “banks should be wary that as a result of the collapse in oil prices will increase the range of falling prices for all other categories of assets compared with the previous stress tests”. These assets include other raw materials, stocks, real estate.