Under stress scenario, the Bank of Russia, the fall of the country’s GDP when the price of oil at 35 dollars per barrel may be approximately two to three percent.
MOSCOW, 24 Dec. The head of the Ministry of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev considers it unlikely the performance in 2016 stress scenario the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the price of oil at $ 35 per barrel.
“I think the likelihood of this is small, but testing, of course, should be carried out”, — the Minister told the journalists, answering the question of how likely, in his view, the implementation in 2016 stress scenario the Central Bank of the Russian Federation with the price of oil near $ 35 per barrel.
He refused to answer the question whether the economic development Ministry to work out such a scenario, referring to prematurity of this question.
Under the stress scenario the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, with an average annual price of oil at 35 dollars the fall in GDP could be around 2-3%. In the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, assuming oil price at $ 50 per barrel, the decline in the economy next year is expected to be 0.5-1%.