Moscow. December 28. Russia has not yet passed the peak of the problems in the economy, says former Minister of Finance, the head of Committee of civil initiatives Alexei Kudrin.
“Some time ago many experts, and I, too, felt that we had reached the bottom, or, as some say, passed the peak of the crisis. But today we see some additional deterioration, which already shows us in November,” he said in an interview.
According to him, “this means that the situation is still unstable”.
“Plus we have an even more serious problem is the sharp decline in oil prices. If the price will remain at this level for another half a year or year, we are waiting for the further decline of economy” – believes the ex-Minister.
“Thus, we cannot say that the peak of problems is passed”, – he stressed.
“Next year is a serious challenge. Reduced public spending, this is inevitable, since both incomes will be less. Devaluation has not yet moved all your energy on consumer prices, inflation next year will be about 1.5 percentage points above expected official forecast of 6.4%,” he called Kudrin possible negative factors in the economy.
According to him, “all this is fraught with high-stakes loans, retaining risk in a number of industries, as production and employment, profits, there is a risk of a new wave of non-repayment of debts”.
“And now the situation is not very good, but, let’s say, while it is stable, except for individual banks or individual branches. But it can get worse,” – said Kudrin.
“Yes, at some enterprises increased production, we also see, especially in export-oriented industries, where the situation is better due to the fact that the devaluation played a role. Part of the industries oriented to the domestic market, also feels better, because the devaluation has hampered imports, given market niche. In principle, everyone expected a greater response of industry to the devaluation as some protection from competition and the ability to expand production,” said the former Minister.