Moscow. December 28. 2015 left a very strong imprint on the Russian transport sector. Aviation sector – the bankruptcy of “Transaero”, remediation of “UTair”, the loss of the largest tourist markets. Railroad – fall loading, the unsinkable retired railwayman Yakunin. The vehicle – a truck rallies against the system “Platon”, a staggering decline in car sales, withdrawal from the market of General Motors.
Against this background, the stevedoring sector, the white Raven, which drew the attention of even the President of Russia. Ports, however, do not produce the goods that pass through them, and the situation in the industry is a reflection of the structure of foreign trade turnover. Restrictions, a weakening ruble is falling imports, but encouraged by its increased suddenly due to exchange rates the competitiveness of exporters tirelessly load the port facilities.
The decline in imports did not spoil the picture
“By the way, pay attention to the following: for January-September the volume of cargo turnover in Russian ports increased by 3%”, – said Vladimir Putin at the final press conference, citing signs of recovery in the economy.
In the first 11 months, the same growth is plus 3%, to 609 million tons. Grow as dry cargo (plus 1.1%) and liquid bulk (plus 4.6 percent). Drivers on dry cargo coal, grain, ferrous metals, fertilizers, bulk – oil, oil products, liquefied gas. That is, as always, increased cargo transshipment associated with exports (+5.5% to 488 million tonnes) and a bit at the expense of cabotage (+3.8 per cent to 46.5 million tons).
Imports also declined by almost a quarter, to 30 million tons. As a consequence, is collapsed and transshipment containers, which is the largest position of import in Russian ports. In the first 11 months, the turnover fell by 15.2%, to 36.6 million tons. This has affected the players in this business. Net income under IFRS is the largest container operator of Russia’s Global Ports group for the I half fell by 2.6 times, to $25,4 mln, revenue – by 25% to $214 million the Group had to cut back on capex and to waive dividends.
Diversified companies or companies working for export, you feel significantly better. The largest Russian stevedore group “Novorossiysk commercial sea port” for 10 months of handling increased by 4% to 116 million tons. The group’s net profit under IFRS for 9 months increased 15.5 percent, to $process is 156.5 million, EBITDA by 8.3%, to $488 million, revenue fell 12.3% to $655 million While NCSP does not simply maintain the dividend at the level of past years, but have increased them. Management stated that the group was willing to pay $100 million of dividends annually.
Overall the industry is doing well: no one went bankrupt, the state support nobody asks, rallies are not satisfied.
However, the market is there and black spots. Major stevedoring projects because of the economic situation has not started. Not issued a single concession agreement with investors for the port of Taman (the planned transhipment capacity of 90 million tons per year). Another ambitious project by $1-1,2 billion “Big port Zarubino” (Summa group) with a turnover of 60 million tons per year is also still a project. As noted by the Deputy Minister of transport Viktor Olersky, “Zarubino” “long slips” and without Federal support is unlikely it can be replicated.
NCSP has found a consensus
For the main player – NCSP – the outgoing year was generally positive. And it’s not so much in operating and financial performance, but in the end disputes over the division of the business. At least for a while.
2014 the group was surrounded by talk of a possible division of assets between major shareholders: the “Sum” Ziyavudin Magomedov terminals dry goods, state monopoly “Transneft” – bulk. Then the question seemed to have actually decided, was called the scheme of the transaction and possible amount, all as if just waiting for the go-ahead. But it did not.
In early 2015 clarity no more. Neither the officials nor the shareholders did not say anything specific, but a possible solution to the issue is constantly postponed. It was the feeling that the idea with the section clearly does not resonate in the higher echelons of power.
In the end, the point in this question decided to put the shareholders at the annual shareholders meeting in Novorossiysk on 30 June. Despite lasting corporate conflict between “Transneft” and “Amount”, which almost ended in a section, arrived at the meeting representatives of the companies were friendly to each other. Vice-President Transneft” Maxim Grishanin (the current head of the Board of Directors) and the representative of the “Amount” Marat Shaydaev (former head of the Board of Directors NCSP) kindly greeted each other and hugged as old friends. And after a few minutes Maksim Grishanin at the meeting said, while plans section no.
On this positive note in the post of General Director of the group joined Sultan Batov – protege “Amount”, and the group adopted a generous dividend of 10 times the previous payment.
First stevedoring IPO since 2011
Well ended the year with another stevedores of the Novorossiysk – JSC “Novorossiysky Combinat KHLEBOPRODUKTOV” (NKHP), specializing in the export of agricultural products. NKP in December of the outgoing year has spent IPO on “Moscow exchange”. This was the first IPO on the stevedoring market since 2011, when the set of Global Ports.
The price of the shares under the placement amounted to RUB 512, close to the upper boundary of the price range, which was 444-518 rubles. In the IPO to 10.8% of the share capital NCHP sold a minority shareholder of the company Belcarra Services Ltd. The package price was $ 3.7 billion, the entire company – 34,5 billion roubles.
However, we cannot say that everything was perfect. NCHP collected order book for almost a month, from November 17. Initially, the company planned to hold the pricing on November 24, then moved the deadline to 25 November, then 1 December, 8 December and 15 December. The delay was caused by uncertainty in the market due to the complications of Russian-Turkish relations. However, this did not deter investors, and IPO finally took place.
One of the strengths of NCHP is a dividend policy that involves paying up to 100% of the profit for the previous year. Weakness – the solidity of the goods, the dependence on productivity. In the lean years on the performance of the company could adversely affect not only a significant reduction in the volume of grain remaining for export, but also the potential introduction of higher export duties.
In any case, with or without risk, the financial results NCHP look very attractive. In fact this high-margin business as a “cash cow” revenue in 2014, 3 billion rubles, net profit – 1,3 billion rubles, EBITDA – 1,7 billion roubles.
Successfully raising funds from the market one of the Novorossiysk port operator “Teleports” Sergey Shishkarev. In November, the group placed 10-year bonds on 3 billion roubles.
“Star” a gift to Putin
Positively ends in 2015 and for the largest Russian shipbuilding project shipyard “Zvezda” (total budget of 146 billion rubles). A few years JSC “USC” (the former controlling shareholder “Stars” through the JSC fesrc) fought for state funding of the project through the NWF, but without avail, and in April told journalists the head of the USC Alexey Rakhmanov, to convince the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of economic development and failed.
Then it was up Rosneft, which has received a share and the actual monitoring in FCSS (along with Gazprombank). Oil company requested from the NWF 89 billion. Again with no result. The state did not want to part with the money of the Fund.
Meanwhile, construction time again and again frustrated. And Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin again and again arranged the dressing.
Finally decided to question the President of Russia. “I have decided to accelerate the modernization of the far Eastern shipbuilding complex “Star” to invest the resources of the company “Rosneftegaz” 60 billion roubles”, – said Putin in September on the first East economic forum in Vladivostok.
There, on the forum, apparently from joy the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin said that the funds of the national welfare Fund for the “Stars” are no longer needed.
However, on the same day in Vladivostok held a meeting on the development of shipbuilding with the participation of Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov and found that Sechin misses: NWF funds on a “Star” is still needed. About 20 billion roubles “have still to take from the NWF,” said Belousov.
Meanwhile, Rosneftegaz in December has already allocated 30 billion roubles. The remaining 30 billion “Star” will receive next year.
However, the success of shipbuilders is not very encouraging energy. Sources said that the Ministry critically commented on the capabilities of domestic shipbuilding. The energy Ministry believes that Russian shipbuilders today do not have the ability and experience of construction “turnkey” of a number of high-tech products such as large-tonnage vessels (particularly the deplorable situation with the LNG carriers) and ice-resistant platform, and in the near future the situation hardly will change. Therefore, says the Ministry, to oblige extractive companies to order these types of courts in Russia is impractical.
And then there is a classic vicious circle: order of the court of serially, because there is no competence, competence will not appear unless ordered of the court.
While on the “Star” custom-made only “Rosneft”: the two a supply vessel and an option for another two.
Pre-five-year plan “Sovcomflot”
“There is a position this year to sell (25% “Sovkomflot”),” – said in 2011, Elvira Nabiullina, the then economic development Minister.
Since then, the position to sell Sovcomflot has been voiced every year in many ways.
2012, Elvira Nabiullina: “In any case, you have it (“SCF”) to prepare them for sale. The price anyway will need to do updated with the accomodation, but, in my opinion, this year (to privatize)”.
2012, which has taken place, Minister of economic development Andrey Belousov: “If this year the most significant event was the privatization of the savings Bank, then next year it will be hold IPO of “Sovkomflot” – the largest transaction, which, we believe, should become a landmark for Russian privatization.”
2013, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev: “I hope that we will reach those targets, which are outlined and can earn on privatisation even more than last year. This is our largest shipping company Sovcomflot, our biggest state Bank and a number of other major assets.”
2014, the head of Rosimushchestvo Olga Dergunova: “In the second quarter will be better prepared for agents, for example, transaction “Sovcomflot”…. We are now in the phase of preparation of all these transactions. In the second quarter they will be done”.
In 2015, some officials have switched to astrological rhetoric, implying that earthly reasons for delaying privatization. “If the Earth falls off its axis, then we expect the privatization of “Sovkomflot” (in 2016),” said Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev at the beginning of December.
“You have to understand that we are in a prolonged period when prices will be lower than peak periods, then have to live with it, accept the new reality,” the official said
However, the reality of the Ministry of Finance not at all.
Deputy Minister of transport Viktor Olersky parried the statement of Alexey Moiseev: the sale of the company should not be an end in itself. “Today it seems the market is good, but householder’s American no, who are always the main buyers of public companies,” – said the official. When no potential buyers, “perhaps we can wait”, he said and called upon save in the matter of “common sense”. Followed by a representative of the Ministry of transport was made by the head of audit chamber Tatyana Golikova: “Now I see the statements from our colleagues in the government that, despite the economic situation, we are still assets of Sovkomflot implement. I take the position that we can’t do it at any cost, we must correlate the decisions on implementation to the value that we can for these assets.” In the current market and the realities of the setting “do not sell cheap” promises more than a year of waiting and further replenishment of potpourri on the privatization of “Sovkomflot”.