Moscow. December 30. If the average oil price will fall to $15-25 per barrel, the economic momentum will be uncertain, according to analysts Sberbank Investment Research, the analytical Department of Sberbank CIB.
As stated in the review of Sberbank Investment Research, in case this scenario the investment Bank analysts expect the increased intervention by regulatory authorities. “Thus the specific nature of such interventions is difficult to predict”, – experts say.
The analysts of Sberbank Investment Research almost no doubt that with the price of oil is $15-25 per barrel the Russian economy expects a deep recession.
“Fluctuations in oil prices affect the economy is stronger than their level per se. Economy able to absorb shocks associated with changes in the price of oil by 25-30% per year: such fluctuations do not lead to a significant economic downturn,” reads the review.
Under the baseline scenario of analysts of the investment Bank, the price of oil in 2016 will be equal to $40 per barrel and Russia’s GDP will not change significantly. Meanwhile, if the price of oil will fluctuate in the range of $40-60, then the economy will begin to grow, experts say.