Moscow. December 30. The PMI Russia manufacturing in December fell to 48.7 points from 50.1 in November to the record since may 2009 reduction of production volumes, according to a study from Markit.
As noted in the review, the value of the index above 50 points indicates growth of business activity, and below this level – its decline.
According to expectations, the decline in industrial production in the Russian Federation in December 2015 was 4.2% in annual terms, inflation is 0.9%. These are the findings of the consensus forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators in December, compiled by Interfax based on a survey of analysts of leading investment companies, banks and think tanks, conducted at the end of the month.
The government’s expectations for achieving the proverbial “bottom” in the economy in June was premature – after 4 months of non-negative dynamics cleared of the seasonal factor, the GDP, in November, according to the calculations Ministry of economic development, the Russian economy decreased by 0.3% compared to October. In annual terms, the decline in GDP accelerated to 4% from 3.7% in October.
The decline in industrial production, excluding seasonal and calendar components in November, according to the Ministry, amounted to 0.6% after positive dynamics during the previous four months.
Thus, the decline in oil prices late in the year, another wave of weakening of ruble, a record decline in consumer demand did not allow the economic authorities to report safely at the end of the year on the adaptation of Russian economy to the new realities.
In 2015, economists expect the economic downturn of 3.9% (according to a poll a month ago to 3.7%).
The consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2016 is equal to minus 0.2% (minus 0.1% poll month ago) and continues to reflect the disputes between the Bank on one side and the Ministry of economic development and the Ministry of Finance on the other, but gradually shifted closer to the estimates of the Central Bank.
The CBR expects the country’s economy in 2016 in the base case oil price of $50 per barrel will continue to decline by 0.5-1%, the forecast of economic development and Finance – an increase of 0.7%. While current oil prices make the baseline scenario of the Central Bank and the Ministry of economic development at $50 a barrel is quite optimistic.
A conservative forecast of Ministry of economic development, calculated at $40 oil, involves reducing GDP by 1%. Risk scenario the Central Bank, calculated at $35 per barrel, in 2016 implies a drop in GDP of 2-3%.