BEIJING, January 5. /Corr. Oleg Trutnev/. China’s GDP in 2016 will increase by 6.7%. This was stated at a press conference, researcher of the Institute of mathematics and system Sciences, analyst of the Centre for forecasting science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Yan Tuihun.
“The rate of growth in the primary sector (agriculture, forestry and mining) is 3.6%, in industry – 5,3%, in services – 8.6 per cent,” she said. According to Jan Cuijun, the main driving force of GDP growth will be domestic consumption – the contribution will be equal to 4%, the share of investments of 2.6%, of net exports was 0.1%.
“In 2016 China’s economy will grow steadily”, – said the expert. “We see a tendency to a slight acceleration of development by the end of the year. In the first half GDP growth will be around 6.5 per cent, in the second and 6.8%,” added Jan Tuihun.
Currently in China there is a gradual slowdown in the growth of the national economy. This happens against the background of changing the model of its development, the focus of which now shifted from production and investment in innovation.
According to statistics, in 2010, economic growth in China was 10.4%, and by 2014 the rate of growth slowed to 7.3%. Official government GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 7%.
Investment in fixed assets of China
Tuihun also stated that the growth of investment in fixed assets of China will slow in 2016 to 10%.
China raised the quota for foreign investors in the stock market to $81,07 billion
Foreign direct investment in the PRC for the 10 months of 2015 increased 8.6%
The volume of investments in China’s economy in October grew by 4.2% to $8,77 billion
“In the short-term decline in demand and medium-term restructuring of the economy the growth of investment in fixed assets in China continues to slow,” said she. “Given the accelerated procedure of approval of major projects by the state and the expansion of market access of private investors, it can be expected that the decrease in the growth rate of investment stabilized in the first quarter and throughout the year, the situation will be stable”, – the expert believes.
“The focus of investment shifted from infrastructure industry in the region. New growth points is the sphere of services and innovative technologies,” said Jan Tuihun.
In China, there is a slowdown in the growth of investment in fixed assets. So in 2011 the volume of investments increased by 31.8%, and by the end of 2014, investments in fixed assets in the PRC increased by 15.7%. According to preliminary estimates of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in 2015, investments are increased only by 10.2%.
According to the Centre for forecasting Sciences, the consumer price index – the main indicator of inflation will be by the end of 2016 of 1.8%.
“In 2016 the price will grow steadily under the impact of the increase in consumer demand, a favorable level of liquidity in the economy and the situation in the real estate market”, – she noted. “At the same time, factors such as redundancy of production capacity, the expected decrease in the level of prices and the restriction of trade and Commerce, will restrain the growth of consumer prices,” says Jan Tuihun.
China’s economy is characterized by a moderate level of inflation. In 2014 it amounted to 2%, by the end of 2015, according to official government estimates should not exceed 3%.
Center of predictive science is one of the leading academic organizations of China in the field of analysis of the future development of the economy.