MOSCOW, 5 Jan. Elena Likova. The ruble on Tuesday afternoon declines against the dollar amid falling oil prices mark Brent to level 37 dollars per barrel and the Euro is growing against the background of falling of the European currency on the interbank Forex market.
The share market of the Russian Federation trading mixed in the major indices, dollar-denominated RTS index falls more than 3% amid weakening of the ruble and low trading volumes.
The MICEX index to 16.12 MSK grew by 0.75% to 1747,56 points, the RTS index fell by 3.08% to 745,91 item.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” grew by 0.19 ruble — to 73,35 of the rouble, the Euro rate decreased by 0.42 ruble — to 78,83 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Since morning the dollar lost about 10-20 cents, then moved to a growth by accelerating the pace of falling oil prices and rose to 73,55 ruble.
The February futures for oil of mark Brent has decreased on 0,35% — to 37,09 USD per barrel.
Under pressure from the oil
The Russian currency remains at the mercy of oil, says Vladislav Antonov from Alpari.
He recalled that on Monday, the tensions in the middle East supported oil prices, and the futures for Brent returned to the level 38,96 dollars per barrel, supporting Russian currency. However, at the evening auction of oil are unable to hold their positions, he adds.
“While the dollar is trading above $ 71,84 ruble, rouble strengthening can be forgotten. So that the scales tilted towards sellers, we should start to pass the level of the ruble RUR 72.50,” he said.
Soon will come the results of the year for the world’s major oil producers, reminiscent of Nicholas Podlevskikh from “Zerich capital Management”.
“Trial balances global production and consumption of oil in 2015, and the results of individual countries will be summarized in a monthly report OPEC, EIA and IEA, which will be coming out next week. In the meantime, the markets will absorb the first information about the start of the new year,” he adds.
Leaders of growth and decline
Shares of “inter RAO” grow for the second consecutive day in the absence of news and rise 7.69%.
In leaders of growth — actions “Enel Russia” (+4,5%), “Pharmacy chain 36 and 6” (+4,37%), “Yandex” (+3,56%), Mosenergo (+2.5%) and Moscow exchange (+2,33%), and the development of LSR group (+2.7 %) and shares of LUKOIL (+2,11%).
In leaders of decrease — actions NMTP (-2,43%), VTB (-2,41%), “UTair” (-1,33%), Aeroflot (-1,28%), papers “Rostelecom” (the preferred shares reduced by 0.96%, ordinary – on 1,03%), ordinary shares of Sberbank decreased by 0.14%.
Forecasts and recommendations
By the end of the day it is unlikely any major changes the major stock indices, and currency pairs, said Alexander Razuvaev of “Alpari”.
“News background is very poor, the key players are resting. Investment ideas — concerns that the fiscal deficit will force the government and the CBR to embark on yet another weakening of the ruble. Some demand persists in dividend securities. In the beginning of the year runs the registries,” he explains.
The RTS index on the end of the day, will probably reach 740-750 points, the MICEX index will not exceed 1 740 points, while the ruble will be traded at the level of 73.5 per dollar, predicts analyst. In order to achieve a target budget deficit of Russia to 3% of GDP requires a course of about 90 rubles per one US dollar, adds Razuvaev.
“In the Eurozone, the Euro/dollar continued yesterday’s decline with a minimum 1,0780 to the mark 1,0751 against the background of weak statistics in the EU, which did not help strong data on the labour market from Germany. Until the end of the day, the Euro will trade on a mark of 79 rubles exactly,” — said the expert.