WASHINGTON, January 6. /Corr. Andrew Shitov/. The world Bank (WB) has revised to the downside their assessments and forecasts for the Russian economy. Now he expects to reduce real GDP in Russia in the coming year by 0.7%. Over the past year, according to his estimates, the decline reached 3.8%. Next year, in his view, the recession should be replaced by a rise of 1.3% of GDP. These figures are given in the new WB report “Global economic prospects”, released today in Washington.
Compared with June last year, estimates Bank of Russia has worsened by 1.1% in 2015, 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% for 2017.
In comments to digital indicators indicates that “economic activity will be slowed by persistently low oil prices and international sanctions.” “Investment is constrained by weak investor confidence and high interest rates, and consumption harms the sharp decline in the purchasing power of the population,” the authors write.
The Russian economy in 2015 – the strip of a protracted recession with the hope of recovery growth
They estimate that oil prices in the world (average for varieties of Dubai, Brent and WTI) fell in the world in 2015 to 46.5%. In the new year they are expected to decline another 8.5% in the next two years – an increase of 7.2% per year.
However, the chief economist of the world Bank Kaushik Basu, representing a new report to reporters, said that this year the prices should not drop, and “grow up a bit compared to where they are now.” But still, in his words, in an average year, they should be approximately $ 49 per barrel, while in June predicted the level of 55 dollars per barrel.
Economic growth in the world in General WB estimates by the end of 2015 is 2.4%. This year he expects accelerating growth to 2.9%, and in the future to 3.1%. But these figures also revised into the side of a certain decrease in comparison with last year’s June forecasts.