Dollar 76, 83 Euro ruble: what next?

Dollar 76, 83 Euro ruble: what next?


The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.53 MSK grew by 1.27 ruble – to 76,03 of the rouble, the Euro rate – on 2,06 ruble – to 82,68 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

MOSCOW, 11 Jan. Elena Likova. The ruble exchange rate at the evening auction Monday again accelerated the fall of the dollar and the Euro on the background of the collapse of oil prices in the area is 32 dollars per barrel mark Brent, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 19.53 MSK grew by 1.27 ruble — to 76,03 of the rouble, the Euro rate — on 2,06 ruble — to 82,68 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

In the first half of trading the dollar rose to 76,49 ruble, Euro – ruble to 83,97.

“Strong” ruble

The beginning of the year meets the ruble under severe pressure from external markets in the form of another wave of panic sales in the Chinese market and further fall in oil prices, says Yuri Kravchenko from “Veles Capital”.

After such a significant decrease, observed since the end of December, it is impossible to exclude correction of the pair dollar-ruble along with the return on the domestic market after the holiday break, the bulk of players, says Yuri Kravchenko from “Veles Capital”.

However, the Russian ruble is still too strong, believes Vasily Oleinik of the company “AI Ti invest”.

Agree with him Aleksei Mikheev of “VTB 24”. “If at the end of December, the oil in the RUB bounced from the low of up to 2570 2730, by Monday oil in rubles has fallen to a new low since 2009 2470 (budgeted 3150 rubles), i.e. the fall of the ruble again less dramatic than the drop of oil. But it is clear that current oil prices are just extremely low,” he explains.

Forecasts and recommendations

Even with further decline in oil prices in the range of 10%, much above 80-82 marks for one U.S. dollar the ruble is unlikely to fall, says Oleynik of the company “AI Ti invest”. “From February to the Russian currency should start a white stripe,” he said.

The biggest now the intrigue continues in the oil market, which has long been in a tailspin. All drop target is already done, so February can still close the red, but in February oil prices is likely to show good growth, says the analyst.

“From a technical point of view, the quotes of Brent crude oil should finish falling in the range of 28 to 32 dollars per barrel, the more accurate in this high volatility hard to call. Once the bottom is set, one can expect growth in the range of 30-40%, but if interfering factors of geopolitics in the middle East, the growth may be more significant,” he commented.

He believes that this year we will see the mark above $ 50 per barrel, and this growth more than 50% from the current levels.

Tuesday will be a modest statistical events, and on Wednesday the importance of the oil market will be the next portion of statistics on energy reserves in the United States, said Kravchenko from “Veles Capital”.