Sberbank assumes in the pessimistic scenario in 2016 the price of oil at $25

Sberbank assumes in the pessimistic scenario in 2016 the price of oil at $25

The savings Bank suggests a new pessimistic scenarios for 2016 the price of oil at $25 per barrel, said the head of the organization German Gref. In his words, low oil prices will not last for a long time.

“Now very big financial game is on the oil market, it must reach a limit. I’m not a big pessimist and I believe that at these levels (us $ 30/bbl – approx. ed.) for a long time the price should not hold out,” said Gref.

“We had this scenario – $ 30 (per barrel – ed. ed.), but now it is not relevant. We have already started to test the level of $ 25, but this is a dire scenario. Everything will depend on how long it will last. If long, it will be very painful for the economy. Long is six months to a year. There will be significant implications for the economy and fiscal system for companies”, – said the head of Sberbank.

However, according to Gref, the failure of the price of Urals oil below $30 per barrel is anomalous. “This is an abnormal failure. 30-28 (per barrel – ed.) behind the Urals – this is an anomaly,” – said the head of Sberbank.

The ruble

Speaking about the national currency, Gref noted that the current weakening is not critical for Sberbank, but sensitive for the banking system of the Russian Federation.

“The question is, how many will have to increase their reserves on loans to banks in the fall of the ruble,” – said Gref. According to him, the economic depreciation of the ruble is still much less painful than fixing the exchange rate of the ruble.

Expert opinion

Author: Konstantin KORISHCHENKO

According to him, the Russian currency can fall in price to 80 rubles to the dollar when oil prices at $25 per barrel. With oil prices around $30, we see the level 76-77 rubles per dollar. At a cost of $25 per barrel – close to 80 rubles and kopecks,” – said he.

Gref noted that he believes it is unlikely the continuation and deepening of the drop in the value of the ruble. “But in General, for the Russian economy is much less painful than fixing the exchange rate”, – said the head of Sberbank.

On Tuesday morning, the dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange exceeded 77 rubles for the first time since 16 December 2014 as at 16:40 Moscow time the dollar since the beginning of this year climbed to 2.74 rubles. up to 76,33 rubles, and the Euro – 2,34 82,77 RUB to RUB.

A new wave of weakening of the ruble began at the end of 2015 amid falling oil prices to the lowest levels since 2004 after 2015, the losses of the ruble amounted to 33.5% to the dollar and 17.2% against the Euro

The influence of OPEC

Gref also pointed out that the decision of OPEC not already have a significant impact on oil prices. “OPEC’s decision may have short-term psychological impact. Today, OPEC no longer controls the market and has a number of other factors. Today, the market reacts more to the situation in China, the devaluation of the yuan. Today, the Chinese economy is a key story,” said the head of Sberbank.

According to him, what happened in the Chinese economy, is very much scared of all investors because there is no understanding of the processes. He noted that analysts of the savings Bank who are engaged in China, do not see fundamental reasons for a crisis on the GDP of China expect growth at the level of 6-6,5%.

Earlier it was reported that the President of OPEC, the oil Minister of Nigeria Emmanuel IBE Cacique supported the convening of the extraordinary summit of the organization in early March on world oil prices.

According to him, the main purpose of the meeting was to review the pricing policy and if necessary change the strategy of the cartel. “Current prices dictate the need for a meeting”, – said the Chairman of OPEC.

“We said that if the price of oil reaches $35 per barrel, we will consider holding an extraordinary meeting,” said Cacique.