MOSCOW, January 13. Deputy Chairman of VEB Andrei Klepach did not rule out the growth of oil prices to$ 40-50 per barrel in the 2nd half of the year.
The speaker: preparing a stress scenario based on oil prices of $25 per barrel
This opinion he expressed to journalists at the Gaidar forum in 2016, organized by the Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute. However, he believes that oil prices could briefly drop to below $20 per barrel.
“To fall (to below $20 per barrel – approx. ed.), but again, it can be a temporary fall. We are up to $9 per barrel fell, and experienced this in 1999, after that, the more the oil price falls, the more it will bounce. I think in the second half of the price will go higher significantly up to I think $40-50 maybe even higher”, – said Klepach.
On air of TV channel “Russia 24” the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that preparing a stress scenario with oil price at 25 dollars per barrel. “We are preparing a stress test scenario in order to be prepared for any eventuality… We are now preparing even the calculations at the level of 25 dollars per barrel”, – said the speaker.
The reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation no
Prerequisites for the reduction of the key rate of the Bank of Russia no, rather may increase, Klepach said.
“Now in the face of declining oil price assumptions to reduce the (key) rate, rather there are preconditions for its increase”, – he said.
However, according to him, to avoid further depreciation of the ruble in the second half of the year and if oil prices will go up, conditions are implemented to strengthen the ruble and, consequently, reduce the key rate.
The Russian economy in 2015 – the strip of a protracted recession with the hope of recovery growth