At the meeting Monday, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has asked the Ministry to prepare various scenarios of situation development when the price of a barrel of Urals oil at 25, 35 and 45 dollars, told “Vedomosti” Federal official.
MOSCOW, 13 Jan. The government intends to assess the impact of low oil prices on the Russian economy, at the meeting on Tuesday, first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has asked the Ministry to prepare various scenarios of situation development in assigned industries at the price of a barrel of Urals oil at 25, 35 and 45 dollars, writes in Wednesday newspaper Vedomosti.
“These figures sounded,” confirmed the publication of a Federal official familiar with the meeting. It is not only about pessimistic scenarios — is also mandated to calculate and optimistic scenario. The instruction was verbal, confirmed to the newspaper official financial-economic bloc. In the Secretariat Shuvalov to comment on the outcome of the meeting refused. “Calculated in different stress scenarios, the discussion continues with experts within the government,” — said the newspaper’s press Secretary, Natalya Timakova.
Russian Urals crude on Tuesday was trading around 27.4 dollar is the price level of February 2004, and the March futures on North sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell below $ 31 a dollar. As at 08.40 Moscow time environment, the price of March futures for Brent decreased by 0.62% to 31,20 USD per barrel.
Federal budget for 2016 calculated from average annual prices for Urals oil at $ 50. Because of declining energy prices in the first two months of 2016, the budget will not receive about RUB 300 billion of oil revenues, the newspaper said citing a Federal official.
Updated macroeconomic forecast, which will form the basis of the new budget projections, the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev promised to introduce in January. Earlier media reported that the Federal bodies of Executive authorities by 15 January proposals to reduce Federal spending by at least 10%.
Present shock scenario the Central Bank assumes oil price of 35 dollars, with a projected decline in GDP of 2-3% and inflation near 7%. But Sberbank has already started to test the level of 25 dollars per barrel, reported earlier the head of Bank Herman Gref. With an average annual oil price of 25 dollars, the economy will shrink by 2.7% of GDP, inflation will be 13.9% and the average annual exchange rate of 80 rubles per dollar, calculated the chief economist BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov, the newspaper writes.