The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.15 Moscow time has decreased on 0,76 ruble – to 76,31 of the rouble, the Euro rate – 0.84 Russian ruble 82,81.
MOSCOW, 13 Jan. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Wednesday evening confidently corrected upwards after several days of decline.
Attempts to the rising cost of oil and verbal interventions, delivered at the Gaidar forum, provided support to the ruble.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 18.15 Moscow time has decreased on 0,76 ruble — to 76,31 of the rouble, the Euro rate by 0.84 ruble — to 82,81 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
Oil and verbal interventions
The ruble against the dollar and the Euro during the session on Wednesday showed strong growth. With the beginning of the year, the dollar gained about 4 rubles, the Euro (due to the weak dynamics on the Forex market) – 3.5 rubles. This created good conditions to profit from the growth of major reserve currencies.
Attempts oil prices to stabilize near the level of 31,5 USD per barrel of Brent ruble helped to start the upward correction.
Tangible support to the ruble received from statements of high-ranking officials, delivered at the Gaidar forum.
Thus, the head of monetary policy Department the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Igor Dmitriev, said the possibility of tightening the OST in case of realization of a risk scenario with oil price in 2016 to $ 35 per barrel. It added superfluous rouble 20 kopecks against the dollar and the Euro.
In a similar vein were made by first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva, stating that risks to inflation in Russia slightly increased, and the Central Bank will take this into account when deciding on the key rate. We must assume that the pause in the decline might be delayed, which could mean a tightening of monetary policy, experts say.
In addition, the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev said that there are chances to take the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2016 to 63 rubles, laid down in the basic forecast of the Russian authorities.
Finally, Dmitriev from the Central Bank said that the ruble has shown resistance to the current (weak) dynamics of world oil prices.
Against this background, the Ministry of Finance was held on Wednesday the successful auction on placement of OFZ.
The dollar and Euro in the evening, traded with a decline by about 1 ruble, and the price of oil was thus saved about 2.4 thousand.
Forecasts and recommendations
The Russian ruble has been some of the reasons for technical correction, but still have many doubts about their long-term nature, says Dmitry Gurkovsky from RoboForex. With the big share of probability it is possible to say that without the reversal of commodity prices rebound, the ruble will last a couple of days, he estimates.
“Until the end of January you can still wait for the update of the maxima of the pair dollar/ruble. Special confidence in the ambulance stabilize the economy. The trend change will speak in the breakdown of the Brent oil up strap 35 dollars and the consolidation above. Auction Thursday for the US dollar will be in the range 75,90-77 roubles, for Euro — 82,10-83,45 ruble” — said Gurkovsky.
Investors will await with interest next week, the first half of which promises to be rich on the publication of statistics from China, says Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.
Currently only positive data from the Chinese market can calm the disturbances in the oil market, he added.