The CBR will not change their risky scenario with oil at $35

Moscow. January 13. The CBR sees no need to revise risk scenario assumes the price of oil to $35 per barrel, but notes that the likelihood of its implementation has increased since the December meeting of the Board of Directors.

“In principle, in the baseline scenario, we noted that oil prices will remain low during December and January. Therefore, any significant deviations from the baseline scenario, but the probability has certainly increased”, – said the head of monetary policy Department of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev journalists on the sidelines of the Gaidar forum.

The Central Bank maintains inflation target in 2017 at the level of 4% in all the scenarios of macroeconomic development.

Answering the question of which values can drop the price of oil, Dmitriev said: “Such assessments are not. We assume that the price can be under the risk scenario and claimed below $35 per barrel, but no specific evaluation. For the purposes of the scenario there is no such need”.

In risky scenarios possible tightening of monetary policy, but this does not necessarily mean an increase in the key rate. “It is important to understand that policy tightening is not clearly a rate increase. In some circumstances, and keeping rates unchanged may be a tightening, in the interpretation of market participants saw in the second half… In different conditions different rate may be differently perceived,” said Dmitriev.

He also noted that today’s changes in the oil market, the ruble is behaving “quite firmly”.