The Central Bank sees no need to change the risk scenario for oil prices

The Central Bank sees no need to change the risk scenario for oil prices


The price of oil could remain within a risky scenario, or fall below the stated $ 35 per barrel, said the representative of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev. In General, the Bank of Russia yet does not see the need of revising its risk scenario, he said.

MOSCOW, 13 Jan. The Bank of Russia yet does not see the need of revising its risk scenario coming from the price of oil in 2016 to $ 35 per barrel, but the likelihood of this scenario has increased, said the head of monetary policy Department of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev.

“While the need for the revision risk scenario no,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Gaidar forum.

Answering the question about what kind of bottom bracket in oil prices embedded in risky scenarios, he noted: “there are no Such estimates, we assume that the price can be under the risk scenario and claimed below 35 dollars per barrel. But a specific assessment, where (there will be a price — ed.) no. For the purposes of this scenario it is necessary (to review the price of oil ed.) no.”

“Adjustment of forecasts, but will it change the numbers, so already we are preparing for January 29 — Board of Directors”, — said the head of the securities Department.

While Dmitriev believes that the probability of a risk scenario slightly increased, but significant deviations from the baseline scenario until it happens. “Rather, it (the probability of a risk scenario — ed.) above, now compared with December, but, in principle, within the framework of the base scenario, we noted that oil prices will remain low during December-January. While significant deviations from the baseline scenario is also not here, but the probability has certainly increased,” — said Dmitriev.