MOSCOW, January 13. The situation in the Russian markets, despite the volatility, has remained relatively stable.
Author: Konstantin KORISHCHENKO
This was announced by first Deputy Chairman of the CBR Ksenia Yudaeva at the Gaidar forum, organized by the Ranepa and the Gaidar Institute.
“The ECB is prepared to use all available means to stabilize the situation in case of need,” she said, noting that the Bank of Russia monitors the situation with the financial stability online and regularly adjusts forecasts and takes into account changes to its policy.
Volatility is inevitable
However, she noted that outbreaks of volatility in global markets is inevitable, definite a similar surge is observed at the present time.
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“In any case, the resurgence of volatility linked to the correction of accumulated years, global imbalances and, in a sense, they are inevitable,” she said. Yudaeva noted that in the past six months, the risk for global markets is the situation in China.
The budget deficit must be financed by increasing the national debt
The budget deficit in the current situation should rather be financed by increasing the national debt than spending reserves, said Yudaeva.
“Since the risks in commodity markets is high, in our view, the priority in the current situation should be given to debt financing and conservation reserves in case of implementing more complex scenarios, when access to debt financing will be more difficult,” she said.
About the debt burden on the economy
Debt burden on the Russian economy should not exceed 25-30% of GDP, said Yudaeva.
“I came from a conservative estimation of the maximum possible debt burden on the Russian economy, which does not threaten macroeconomic stability, for example no more than 25-30% of GDP,” she said.
Evaluation of the ex-Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin, now the debt load is 15.5% of GDP.
Not to interfere with the business
Yudaeva believes that the aid budget should be provided to the population, to go to the development of infrastructure and human capital.
“The main way to help businesses in the current environment is not to disturb him. Scarce resources and government support should be concentrated on helping the most vulnerable segments of the population, as well as on the development of infrastructure and human capital,” she said.
In her opinion, the government should rely on competitive industries that are able to survive without state support.
Gaidar forum. Text translation