Economist: peak of defaults on rouble mortgage will be in 2016

Economist: peak of defaults on rouble mortgage will be in 2016


This year under serious blow would be the institution of mortgage lending, in the case of rouble denominated loans, the main “beach” – rising unemployment, says the Director of the analytical Department IR “Okay Broker.”

MOSCOW, 14 Jan. Peak of defaults on rouble mortgage with high interest rates vary from 13.5% and above, it may happen in 2016, said the Director of the analytical Department IR “Okay Broker” Vladimir rojankovski.

Earlier it was reported that the growth of overdue debt on the mortgage since the beginning of 2015 amounted to 34.7%, and on 1 December reached 38,9 billion rubles. The fall of Russia’s GDP in November in annual terms accelerated to 4% in January-November of 2015 over the same period last year, the GDP decline amounted to 3.8% compared with 3.7% in January-September and 4.1% in the third quarter.

“I think that the peak will be in the second half of the year. The peak of the monetary defaults on the mortgage, in our opinion, has already passed. Those, who in their right mind, has long been restructured currency mortgages in the ruble. Defaults on rouble mortgage loans, however, will have a slightly different nature compared with the currency “counterparts”, — said the Agency interlocutor. According to him, if the main trigger is “AMD FX” was the sharp devaluation of the ruble that suddenly made low-quality borrowers, in the case of rouble denominated loans, the main “beach” — growing in the country, widespread unemployment and delayed wage payments.

It is not about the decline of credit quality of borrowers, and the consequences of the economic crisis in General, explains rojankovski. “The government will be no more recipes for this category of citizens, because they did everything right, and took out a loan in the currency in which you receive income in rubles”, — says the expert. At such succession of events under a serious blow will be the institution of mortgage lending, to that extent, which is the entire consumer segment.

President “Sequoia credit consolidation” Elena Dokuchaeva, in turn, notes that to talk about the possibility of mass default on ruble-denominated mortgage borrowers while it is premature – it will depend on the further macroeconomic situation in the country. “However, allowing for such a possibility, it is important to note that in case of real threat to this segment of borrowers will likely be able to count on some government support. Such anti-crisis measures we have seen in 2015, when the market was faced with mass default on foreign currency borrowers. Then the lenders made certain recommendations for working with this segment of borrowers,” says Dokuchaeva.

According to her, at the moment, more than 105 thousand loans issued for the purchase of housing, have arrears against 80 thousand at the beginning of the year. Of them are in arrears over 90 days accounted for about 40%. Each 25 credit in the segment of mortgage lending is overdue. Last year this figure was slightly lower — each 30 credit was late.