The main reason for the increasing pressure on the ruble was the failure of the oil price below the psychologically significant level of 30 dollars for Brent oil. Weak dynamics of the stock markets of China added to the negative dynamics of the oil market.
MOSCOW, 15 Jan. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble declined significantly during the day against the failure of oil prices below the psychologically significant level of 30 dollars for Brent oil (already dropped to 29,42 dollar).
Prior to the growth of ruble participants of the market have decided to use a depreciating dollar and Euro, dealers said.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 13.28 Moscow time grew by 1.32 ruble — to 77,37 of the rouble, the Euro rate — on 1,77 ruble to 84,38 ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
At the annual highs
The ruble exchange rate on the last working day of the week proceeded to decline after two days of correctional growth.
The main reason for the increasing pressure on the ruble was the failure of the oil price below the psychologically significant level of 30 dollars for Brent oil, helped by the continued surplus of raw materials in the world and investors ‘ expectations of the imminent return of Iranian oil to the market.
Weak dynamics of stock markets in China also added to the negative dynamics of the oil market.
In addition, before the weekend the players of the Russian currency market have moved to increase foreign exchange positions to reduce risk, especially because the ruble in the last two days strengthened somewhat, which made more favorable to purchase foreign currency.
All this brought the Euro exchange rate above 84 rubles, and the dollar was fixed above 77 rubles, both reserve currencies have updated the highs from December 2014.
Among the factors of support of the Russian currency may make tax payments of exporters (January 25, payment of VAT, excise tax, mineral extraction tax), the volume of which composes not less than 640 billion rubles, analysts estimate ROSBANK; the main positive effects will begin to manifest towards the end of next week, I guess in the Bank.
While Russian exporters is almost not active on the foreign exchange market, selling dollars and euros, appreciates Tom Levinson from the company “Sberbank CIB”. “Taking into account the upcoming in this month tax payments is not yet clear why they have been inactive — consider that perhaps a further fall of the ruble, or continue to celebrate the holidays,” he says.