Siluanov did not see the potential for a sharp drop in oil and the ruble from the current levels.


Moscow. January 16. The continued significant decline in oil prices is unlikely, and as a result, and jumps of the ruble, says Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

“The main changes that affect the course, they have already happened. Still our main export goods, (…) 4 times the prices have dropped. Still 4 times lower prices versus today’s, well, unlikely”, he said in the program “Vesti on Saturday”, answering the question about the likelihood of abrupt changes of course.

On the new version of the macro forecast prepared by the Ministry of economic development, in 2016 the average annual oil price will be $40 per barrel, not $50 as planned now. The average annual dollar rate in the new scenario, at the level of 68.2 RUB/$1 (in the current forecast at 63.3 rubles).

While the Ministry prepares and stress scenarios predict a price of $25 per barrel, reported earlier the Minister Alexei Ulyukayev. This scenario assumes the dollar 80 rubles.

The CBR sees no need to revise its risk scenario assumes the price of oil to $35 per barrel, but notes that the likelihood of its implementation has increased since the December meeting of the Board of Directors. “In principle, in the baseline scenario, we noted that oil prices will remain low during December and January. Therefore, any significant deviations from the baseline scenario, but the probability has certainly increased”, – said the head of monetary policy Department of the Central Bank Igor Dmitriev.