The speaker: the decline of Russia’s GDP in 2015, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 3.9%

The speaker: the decline of Russia’s GDP in 2015, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 3.9%


BEIJING, 16 January. The fall of Russia’s GDP in 2015, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 3.9%. About it has informed journalists the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.

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The speaker: stabilization and rising prices in the oil market comes after the first quarter of 2016

“Rosstat has given us a preliminary assessment of 3.9%. I think the 3.8-3.9% of something will be. While final figures are not,” he said.

Last forecast Ministry foresaw the decline in the level of 3.7-3.8%. Currently the Ministry is revising estimates for 2016.

As reported previously, the newspaper “Vedomosti”, we are currently discussing a version of scenario conditions of social and economic development envisages a GDP contraction by 0.8% against the expected growth by 0.7%; the average annual ruble rate will be RUB 68,2/$1; price of Urals oil – $40/bbl., inflation of 8.5%; the outflow of capital – $50 billion

According to the speaker, and is considered “stressful” scenario price of oil $25 per barrel.

With an average annual oil price of $25/bbl

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From high to collapse: the dynamics of oil prices since 2000

The speaker also noted that when the average oil price in 2016 at $25 per barrel the rate will be less than in 2015.

“Less than the actual decline last year”, – he told, answering a question.

Under scenario, when the average annual oil price of $40 per barrel, expects a small decline of the economy. “Less than unity”, – said the Minister.

Base macroeconomic forecast

The Minister also indicated that a review of the basic socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2016 should be done not now, but after the first quarter.

“I believe that the clarification of the base case will need to come back later, for example, in April,” he said.

Earlier it was reported that the Ministry of economic development plans in January to introduce a new variant of the forecast for the current year to take account of changed conditions, in particular, the sharp decline in oil prices. Because of the changes the Finance Ministry set before ministries and departments with the task of reducing costs by 10% if they do not, the Ministry of Finance by the same amount sequestered budget.

“I believe that we should not bring this case (adjustment of the macro forecast – approx.) to the status of formal changes to the forecast, and hence the formal change in the law on the budget”, – said the speaker.

Infographics


Oil prices over 40 years

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