BEIJING, January 18. By the end of the first quarter of 2016 world oil prices may stabilize with subsequent growth. This opinion was expressed to journalists the Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.
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“Analysts, and I share this point of view, expects that by the end of the first quarter could lead to stabilization in the oil market with the further increase in prices,” he said.
According to him, this will become one of factors of strengthening of the ruble.
The Minister added that by the end of the year, “some restorative movement dynamics of oil prices and related prices for gas and oil products”.
The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in March 2016 on the ICE stock exchange in London January 15, fell to 7,18% to 28,81 dollar.
Now the government is correcting macroeconomic forecast for the current year on the basis of which are calculated the parameters of the budget. Budget-2016 assumes prices of us $ 50./Barr., however, it is expected that the Ministry may reduce this target to 40 million./Barr. Stress scenario the Central Bank of the Russian Federation proceeds from the $ 35./Barr.
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Deputy Prime Minister
The decline of the GDP
The fall of Russia’s GDP in 2015, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 3.9%, also said the speaker.
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“Rosstat has given us a preliminary assessment of 3.9%. I think the 3.8-3.9% of something will be. While final figures are not,” he said.
Last forecast Ministry foresaw the decline in the level of 3.7-3.8%. Currently the Ministry is revising estimates for 2016.
As reported previously, the newspaper “Vedomosti discussed in the present version of scenario conditions of social and economic development envisages a GDP contraction by 0.8% against the expected growth by 0.7%; average annual exchange rate of the ruble will amount to 68.2 per RUR/1 USD; the price of Urals oil – $ 40/Barr., inflation of 8.5%; the outflow of capital – $ 50 billion.
According to the speaker, and is considered “stressful” scenario price of oil $ 25 per barrel.