Moscow. January 20. The unprecedented influx of refugees into the EU may mean for Europe’s moderate GDP growth, the IMF report on migration published on Wednesday.
Overall, the EU economy will grow further by 0.09 percentage points in 2016 and by 0.13 p. p. in 2017 thanks to the workers, but in Sweden, Austria and Germany, the effect will be more noticeable – up to 0.5 percentage points, according to experts of the Fund.
According to the IMF, expenditure on migrants in Europe in 2016 will range from almost 1% of national income to a very insignificant share in the UK, Spain and Cyprus.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde, speaking at the world economic forum in Davos, noted the potential benefits of inflow of migrants to Europe. According to her, migration can bring economic benefits to European Nations if they can quickly develop a strategy for the integration of migrants into the domestic labour market.
“The sooner the refugees get jobs, the more they will be able to help the local economy by paying taxes and contributions into the social insurance system, – quotes the report of the IMF Financial Times. Their successful integration can also partly compensate for the negative effect of population ageing”.
Among the measures that could facilitate the involvement of migrants in the labour market, called the lifting of the ban on job search before obtaining refugee status and rules restricting the movement of migrants between European countries.
The IMF predicts that in the years 2015-2017 to Europe will arrive around 4 million refugees.
Meanwhile, in a Report on global risks in 2016, which will form the agenda of the WEF, large-scale forced migration named one of the major threats to world development. She leads the list of the most probable risks, the probability and the impact of this risk are also increasing faster than all others.