The ruble during the session on Wednesday traded in tangible negative territory after oil updating multi-year lows. According to the data of the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 20.34 Moscow time has grown up to 82,32 of the ruble, the Euro – up to 89,89 of the ruble.
MOSCOW, 20 Jan. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and the Euro on Wednesday evening was falling by about 5% on the background of weak dynamics of the oil market, which refreshed the lows since the end of 2003.
The dollar has updated the historical minimum, rising above 82 rubles, the Euro exceeded $ 90 for the first time since December 2014.
The dollar calculations “tomorrow” to 20.34 Moscow time grew by 3.76 ruble — to 82,32 of the rouble, the Euro rate — on 4,17 ruble — to 89,89 of the ruble (already up to 90.1 ruble), follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.
The ruble during the session on Wednesday traded in tangible negative territory after oil updating multi-year lows.
Negative dynamics of oil trading linked to the return of Iranian oil to the world market after removing the Tehran sanctions.
Market participants expect that the Iranian side will be able in the next few weeks to increase deliveries of oil on 500 thousand barrels a day.
In addition, the International energy Agency (IEA) in its January report on Tuesday said that does not exclude further decline in world oil prices on the background of the conservation in 2016, the excess of supply over demand. The Agency expects that for the third consecutive year the offer will exceed the demand by one million barrels a day.
Against this background, the price of Brent has fallen in the area of 27,3 USD per barrel – the lowest level since the end of 2003.
As a result, the currency of the Russian Federation in the evening lost more than 4% against the dollar and Euro, which increased the area of 82.5 rubles and 90 rubles, respectively. This powerful one-day weakening of the ruble was not observed for several months. Trading volume also rose to almost $ 7 billion on contracts with delivery “tomorrow”.
The price of oil, denominated in rubles, with ranges below 2.3 thousand rubles per barrel.
Forecasts and recommendations
On Wednesday, the ruble rather painfully reacted to oil prices, said Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”. The hopelessness of the situation for the ruble, in addition to the oil market, reinforced by the fact that the major players in the interbank market in reality have no shortage of ruble liquidity ahead of large tax payments, he added.
RUONIA rate reflecting the cost of actually provided MBC between the largest participants of the interbank market, remains close to the key rate of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the dollar increase of more than 4% a day gives you much more winning.
“Thus, the lack of liquidity in connection with the reduction of the limit on the auctions of the Central Bank have only individual or very small players that does not add significant demand for rubles in anticipation of large payments to the budget”, — said Kravchenko.
The current weakening of the ruble – this is a normal market reaction to the fall in commodity prices, said Andrey Shenk of the criminal code “Alfa Capital”. The Central Bank will enter the market to support the ruble, he said.
“The inflationary impact of the devaluation weakened due to the decrease of imports, namely inflation targeting the Central Bank sets as its policy priority. Of course, we can expect to see some increase in inflation expectations, which may restrain the pace of easing monetary policy. But the reasons for more radical action now is not” — said Schenk.