What explains the sharp drop in the ruble on Thursday

What explains the sharp drop in the ruble on Thursday


Moscow. January 21. Currency market participants noted that currently the situation on the market nervous, but there was no panic, many of them expect a rebound of the ruble. Experts believe that the fall of the ruble on Thursday due mainly to local factors and a small panic in the market this morning, as oil prices basically stable.

The prolonged neglect of oil prices

“There is no panic. Sometimes the volatility is high, trade with little volume gives a large change of course, but panic is not visible neither among the contractors or among the community,” said Vice-President of Alfa-Bank Igor Akinshin.

According to him, the current demand for foreign currency cannot be called speculative, it present customers with real needs. High demand from the population, which was last year, is yet to be seen.

Speaking about the reasons of such sharp falling of course, Akinshin noted that the ruble for a long time ignored the drop in oil prices, “and now spring is beginning to decompress”. In addition, the reduced supply of foreign currency from exporters could also have an impact on the fact that the ruble has become more consistent with the current price of “black gold”.

The market is waiting for comments from the Central Bank regarding the ongoing situation, said the expert.

Sales of local securities

ING analyst Dmitry Polevoy also sees no panic in the market. According to him, the current fall of the ruble due to local factors, as the price of oil stable. Also on the dynamics of quotations was influenced by factors such as the closure of ruble long positions that were opened in previous days in hopes of a rebound in oil prices and the expectation that the resident will be active in the debt market.

“As a rule, non-residents in a period of panic selling of the local paper, including OFZs, and leave the market. The situation in the money and bond markets is complex, but uncontrollable panic,” said Field.

Conversion of dividends

Sberbank CIB analysts in their review also noted that additional impetus to the downward trend of the ruble provided a forced closure of positions of some players. While exporters continued to temporize, and the market was in a situation where the offer from the sellers of the Russian currency are not matched by bids for its purchase.

The demand for foreign currency was largely provided by the conversion of dividends. In the past few days, shareholders were paid dividends for January – September 2015 for a total amount of 156 billion rubles ($2.0 billion). According to estimates Sberbank CIB, the amount of funds converted for payments to foreign investors amounted to $0.8 billion, and the Russian shareholders had converted an additional $1.1 billion amid growing fears of devaluation.

The total pumped situation

As noted by the head of Internet trading “Opening Broker” Alexander Dubrov, a small panic on the currency market was at the beginning of the trading day, when the dollar reached 83 rubles, however, the situation is now calm. This jump in prices, he explains the dynamics of quotations of oil, and the “General deterioration of the situation”.

Chapter “Ah Ti invest” Oleg Filatov said that the situation on the currency market “nervosaa”, all tense and waiting for action to be taken by the Central Bank.

While the futures market was achieved Planck – market came up against the limits of price movement futures on a pair rouble-dollar, after which exchange the bar has expanded and increased the margin by 50%. “Many clients were closing on the margin of colas on short positions in dollars,” said Filatov.

According to him, the weakness of the ruble-dollar in the near future may occur to be Bouncing. “When the dynamics of the asset reaches 3-5% per day, it usually means the end of the movement, as they say, “when”, then must be rolled back”, – said Filatov.

According to 13:42 GMT, the dollar was 84,21 ruble, the ruble is at 2.81 higher than the price of the previous close, the Euro was 91,61 ruble (an increase of 3.05 per ruble). The maximum price to dollar on Wednesday reached almost 86 rubles, euros – 93.7 per ruble.