Ruble in the evening compensated part of the fall day

Ruble in the evening compensated part of the fall day


The dollar calculations “tomorrow” grew by 19.19 GMT on 2 ruble – to 83,40 ruble, Euro – by 1.6 ruble to 90.3 per ruble.

MOSCOW, 21 Jan. Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and Euro on Thursday evening was falling by about 2%.

The dollar has updated the historical minimum in the afternoon, rising almost to 86 rubles, the Euro went to $ 93.7 per ruble for the first time since December 2014. However, the evening part of the decline of the ruble was offset by more costly oil.

The dollar calculations “tomorrow” grew by 19.19 GMT on 2 ruble — to 83,40 ruble, Euro — by 1.6 ruble to 90.3 per ruble, follows from the data of the Moscow exchange.

At new peaks

The ruble during the session on Thursday ranged mostly in the red. The main drop occurred at the beginning of the auction, when there was panic buying of dollars and euros.

On this wave the dollar jumped almost 86 rubles (new historical maximum) and the Euro – to the next peak from December 2014 – 93.7 per ruble.

The prices for oil have not updated multi-year lows reached on Wednesday.

A contribution to the next wave of decrease has made appeared on the market the information that banks ask the Central Bank to protect them from the fall of the ruble – or a quarter of the players will not be able to fulfill the standards.

Contributed and evaluation of the former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin about the fact that oil prices have not reached bottom, and do not exclude the fall to 16-18 per barrel.

However, after the release of the dollar to the resistance level of 86 rubles have been attempts correction of major reserve currencies down and retreat from their intraday highs.

Support the ruble in the second half of the day was provided by the statements of the ECB President Mario Draghi to ease monetary policy (DCT).

The ECB President at a press conference following today’s decision to maintain refinancing rate at 0.05% annually stated that rates will remain at or below that level for some time.

Data about growth of stocks of oil in the U.S. has not pressured the oil market, which continued to be adjusted upwards. It helped the rouble in the evening to offset some of the losses.

The price of oil, denominated in rubles, while getting to the level of 2.4 thousand rubles per barrel, although the day before had dropped below 2.3 thousand.

Forecasts and recommendations

From the point of view of technical analysis, in the next few days the dollar and the Euro will be adjusted down, but how long this correction will depend on oil prices, estimates Anna Kokoreva of “Alpari”.

“So far, the oil market is a temporary lull that can go both in growth and in further decline. In the best case, the pair dollar/ruble will adjust to the level of 75,6 and the pair of Euro/ruble to the level of the 82.30 level”, — she said.

Participants of the market on Thursday reacted to the announcement by the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina that the regulator currently sees no threats to financial stability, and so there are no reasons for foreign exchange intervention, said Yuri Kravchenko from IK “Veles Capital”.

“Recognition Elvira Nabiullina is important not so much in the context of foreign exchange interventions (the ineffectiveness of which in conditions of falling oil prices has already been proven in 2014), but that participants received a clear signal of further inaction by the Central Bank,” he says.