MOSCOW, January 25. The recession in the Russian economy will continue in 2016-2017, including because of lower energy prices. This conclusion is contained in the operational monitoring of the economic situation in Russia, which was prepared by the experts of the Institute for economic policy. E. Gaidar, the Russian Academy of national economy and public administration (Ranepa) and Russian Academy for foreign trade, Ministry of economic development.
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“The conclusion which is done by our experts in the forecast for 2016-2017, is that during this period, the recession will continue. They are basing it on the fact that the preliminary data about results of development of the Russian economy in 2015, as well as what is happening in the global energy market are forced to reconsider the worse scenario for the next two years”, – stated in the report.
Experts note that as a basic condition for predicting the development of the Russian economy is considered the average price of oil Urals in 2016 at $35 per barrel and $40 in 2017. Optimistic scenario assumes oil price at $50 in 2016 and $55 in 2017.
In addition, at least until the end of 2016 it is expected to maintain the main part of the external sanctions and Russian countersanctions.
In these circumstances, the recession continues for another two years, experts say institutions.
So, the fall in GDP in 2016 will amount to 1.4% (-0.4% in the optimistic variant) and a decline of 0.3% in 2017 (only with sustained oil prices above $50-55 a year possible growth of 0.9%).
Forecast authors emphasize that these trends are predetermined by the insufficient pace of structural changes and the worsening oil situation.
In addition, the document notes that the dynamics of oil production in major producing countries does not allow to make unambiguous conclusions about its future impact on the state of the oil market.
Experts indicate that the decline in production in regions with high production costs (Canada, Mexico, the North sea, shale deposits of the US) is offset by increased production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and, inevitably, Iran.
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