MOSCOW, January 26. The dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange during the auctions has grown in comparison with level of closing of previous trading day by 2.16 rubles and amounted to 82,20 rubles, exceeding two pins 81 and 82 rubles, the Euro jumped to 2.29 89,22 rubles to rubles, exceeding in the morning 88 and 89 rubles.
The ruble depreciates after oil. The cost of futures for oil of mark Brent with delivery in March 2016 on the stock exchange ICE in London fell on Tuesday for 3.28% to 29.5 dollars/Barr. In the course of trading on January 22, the price of Brent reached the level of 32,5 USD/bbl.
Experts: recession in the Russian economy will continue in 2016-2017
“Futures on Brent crude oil slipped below the psychologically important level of 30 dollars per barrel, and traders on the stock exchanges Asia remembered about the risks associated with “cooling” the Chinese economy”, – explains the dynamics of oil prices, a leading analyst of investment group “OLMA” Anton Startsev. The Shanghai Composite index, reflecting the situation on the Shanghai stock exchange fell Tuesday on 6,48% to the value of 2748 points.
Dollar-denominated RTS index in the course of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has fallen to 3,55% to 657,39 points, while the ruble MICEX index lost 1% and reached the level of 1699,24 points, having fallen below 1700 points.
With the dollar index falling rapidly amid the weakening of the ruble. On Tuesday morning, the dollar rate exceeded two marks 81 and 82 of the ruble, and Euro 88 and 89 rubles.
According to Deputy General Director for investment analysis of IR “Zerich capital Management” Andrey Vernikov, on Tuesday morning, the drivers for growth of the Russian market are absent. “In our market, many investors also choose defensive strategy, and speculators are sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.
Oil prices fall – production of Iranian oil breaks records, the Blizzard on the East coast of the United States ceased. In the Russian economy “recession bottom” is yet to be seen, the emerging markets index is under downward trend. In this situation, the purchase of shares of “broad front” would be meaningless. Investors will be given the results of the fed meeting”, – the expert believes.
This week the Russian financial market will wait for the results of the meetings of the Federal reserve system of the USA (Tuesday, 27 January), and the Bank of Russia rate decision (Thursday, 29 January).
The situation in the oil market
The price of the futures contract for March delivery of oil grade Brent on London exchange ICE fell again below $30 per barrel to $of 29.98.
For the first time since April 2004 the price of a barrel of Brent fell below $30 on January 13.
The price of crude oil varieties WTI on the new York stock exchange as of the close of the session on Monday fell by 7.52% to $29,77 per barrel.
Prices for Brent crude and the dollar
Prices for Brent crude and the dollar. Infographics
As noted by the information service BloombergBusiness, market participants do not exclude the possibility that the price of oil WTI can fall to $25 per barrel.
“Now actively discussing the possibility of dropping the price to $25, – said a senior market analyst at the Chicago-based company Price Futures Group Phil Flynn. – Many market participants believe that the price will fall to this level before, finally, the bottom will be reached”.
The price of a barrel of oil WTI was close to this value of 20 January, when it stood at around $26,19 per barrel – i.e., the lowest level since may 2003.
As noted BloombergBusiness, commercial oil stocks in the USA has now reached the highest level since 2004, when the information Department of the Ministry of energy of the USA has started to publish weekly summaries. By mid January, in the storage of Kalinga (Oklahoma), which deliveries on futures contracts, accumulated to 64.2 million barrels of oil.
Ruble: factors of decline and growth. Special project
From high to collapse: the dynamics of oil prices since 2000