CB: the oil price in the period of 2016-2017 years will probably be below 50 dollars

CB: the oil price in the period of 2016-2017 years will probably be below 50 dollars


In the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, the decline of the economy in 2016 is expected to be 0.5-1%. A floating exchange rate will partially compensate for the negative impact on the economy of lower prices, said the Central Bank.

MOSCOW, 29 Jan. Oil prices in 2016-2017 is likely to be below 50 dollars per barrel, as previously assumed in the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, the floating rate will offset the negative impact on the economy, low energy prices, according to a press release from the Bank of Russia.

“Oil prices in 2016-2017 is likely to be lower than previously assumed in the baseline scenario”, — stated in the press release of the regulator.

In the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, assuming oil price at $ 50 per barrel, the decline of the economy in 2016 is expected to be 0.5-1%. Under the stress scenario the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, with an average annual price of oil at 35 dollars per barrel, the fall in GDP could be around 2-3%.

“A floating exchange rate will partially compensate for the negative impact on the economy of low energy prices. However, will require further adaptation of the balance of payments and economy to lower the level of world prices for basic commodities of Russian exports,” noted the Central Bank.