Banks will be enough accumulated capital to 1.5 years without strong shocks

Banks will be enough accumulated capital to 1.5 years without strong shocks


January currency appreciation has increased the pressure on the capital of the banking sector only at 66 billion rubles, said the Chairman of the Central Bank Mikhail Sukhov.

TULA, 3 Feb. The banking sector of the Russian Federation has accumulated enough capital for a peaceful existence for at least 1.5 years with reasonable scenarios of economic development, which considers the government, said Deputy Chairman of the CBR Mikhail Sukhov.

“I believe that the accumulated capital reserve sufficient to ensure that the banking sector is quietly existed from the point of view of capital needs for at least 1.5 years, if you focus on a reasonable scenario of economic development, which are discussed in the government, the expert community… it is Impossible to estimate, on the basis of some economic Apocalypse — it’s not serious”, — said Sukhov.

“I assume that the film comes from the mass default of the enterprises, development of catastrophic unemployment, and the banking sector will have to form reserves, on the basis of objective factors related to creditworthiness of borrowers, borrowers”, — said Sukhov, adding that reserves may be more, in which case banks will remain without a positive financial result.

According to him, the forecast of profit of banks of the Russian Federation at the level of 200-400 billion rubles comes from the optimistic forecast of formation of reserves when the amount of the deductions will not grow.

The impact of the January collapse of the ruble

He noted that the January currency appreciation has increased the pressure on the banking sector capital is only 66 billion in the peak period the load was increased to 330 billion rubles. The capital adequacy ratio is now 12.7 per cent, which indicates that there are no grounds for concern and the need for major concessions from the Central Bank, said Sukhov.

“If you look at the change rate of the ruble, which occurred in January, look at the structure of Bank balance sheets, the current fall of the ruble led to major load only in the amount of 66 billion rubles, which is much less than 1% of the capital of the banking sector, which in the beginning of the year amounted to $ 9 trillion… And in the peak value of the change in exchange rate has attracted major load in 330 billion roubles. It was one day. Still the load on the background of the 9 trillion rubles and values adequacy ratio of 12.7% is the extent, which may not instill any concerns,” said the Chairman of the Central Bank.

The Chairman of the Central Bank explained that growth of loading on foreign currency obligations because of course runs simultaneously with the positive revaluation of passive base. “The banking sector is the excess of the carrying assets on the balance liabilities in the amount of $ 16.2 billion… the Available size of the open currency position of banks half-compensates for the major load, which entails a change in the exchange rate”, — said Sukhov.

“It is from this fact the decision to suspend the calculation of the standard N6 and H21 at a discounted rate — it’s a local decision, the temporary decision, focused on those regulations that really gave concern to some banks in connection with changes in currency exchange rates, which really could be broken”, — said Sukhov.

Reserves

The Chairman of the Central Bank noted that if a negative scenario, banks created the volume of provisions for bad debts in the current year may be increased by 2 times.

“Last year was a record year from the point of view formed by our banks reserves — 1.4 billion rubles. I think this year they will be bigger in some scenarios, it could double, maybe less,” he said.

“Regardless of the financial result, which will get banks, reserve capital adequacy in absolute value sufficient to absorb the loss… the Absolute value of the absolutely sufficient due trillion, which went (through the state support of banks through the mechanism of OFZ — ed.) and to a greater extent due to the front lower capital adequacy ratio from 10% to 8%”, — said Sukhov.