In the fourth quarter of this year the price of Brent crude will reach $48/bbl., and WTI will cost $46/bbl., according to Bloomberg, based on the median estimate of 17 forecasts.
According to the U.S. Department of energy, oil production in the country will decline by the fourth quarter of 7%, or 620 thousand Barr./a day, compared with the first quarter. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co believe that in Russia production for the year may fall by 1,3%, or on 150 thousand Barr./day.
Earlier, the International energy Agency has estimated a possible reduction of oil production in countries outside OPEC, 600 thousand Barr./day.
“The combination of the continuing increase in demand and decrease in production in the U.S. will eventually make the market conditions for price growth by year-end to $40-50,” he told Bloomberg by e-mail the head of Department of analysis of commodity markets at Saxo Bank OLE Hansen.
“American shale needs to take one for the team, then we will see reductions, and delivery will have to start to reduce”, — told the Agency by phone from Singapore analyst in the area of investment company Phillip Futures Daniel Ang. He noted that in the second half of the year will have stronger demand, according to forecasts.
The head of BP Bob Dudley said on Bloomberg Television Tuesday that in the second half of the year oil prices will rise because of “supply and demand will follow.” But in the first half, in his opinion, the market will remain “difficult and turbulent”, as it will struggle with the oversupply of 1 million barrels./day.
Analysts of the British Bank Standard Chartered has previously made an even more optimistic Outlook, expecting in the fourth quarter prices at $70-75/bbl.
The head of Sberbank German Gref in the end of January suggested that the oil in the first six months will cost from $25 to 35 per barrel, and the second will range between $30 and 40. However, he noted that “to predict oil prices is too difficult.”
In mid-January the price of Brent and WTI fell to lows not seen since 2003. 15:22 MSK April futures on the London exchange ICE rose by 2.03% from the closing price, to $33,39/bbl. In new York crude oil also went up by 2.04%, to $30,49 per barrel.