According to the forecast, which is contained in the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Bank of Russia, in the coming months will continue the recession, the Russian economy “will continue to feel the bottom”.
“Statistics on industrial production for December indicates that the reduced production of the main types of economic activity in General continues. This confirms the fears of a more prolonged downturn in the Russian economy than previously thought. <…> The economy will likely continue to feel the bottom in the coming months”, — stated in the document published by the Central Bank.
The Central Bank also noted that if current low oil prices, there is a high probability that the recession will last into the first or second quarters of 2016.
In addition, in conditions of low oil prices, the Central Bank predicted “the continuation of uncertain dynamics in the industry during the first half of 2016”.
As for oil prices, in the Bulletin of the Central Bank says that oil prices could permanently “stuck” in the range of $20-40 per barrel.
“Many commodities and indices, including oil, in January reached a new multi-year lows, while oil prices are permanently “stuck” in the hallway 20-40$./barrel”, — the document says the Central Bank.
The main factors that will shape oil prices, demand for oil and oil products in China and the ability of countries-oil exporters to agree on a coordinated reduction of production, noted in the Central Bank. In this case the Central Bank does not expect that OPEC will fail to agree on production cuts.
Statements about reaching the bottom of the Russian economy over the past few months repeatedly sounded. So, at the end of September last year the world Bank announced that it has reached the bottom of the Russian economy. In the UK it was stressed that despite the “fragile stabilization”, waiting for the resumption of economic growth in the near future is not worth it.
In mid-October, analysts at Barclays Capital said that the Russian economy is near the lowest point of its cycle and “a recession in the future will not go”.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicted the economy reaching bottom in the fourth quarter of 2015. “In the last months of this year, early next will see a positive rate of economic growth,” predicted the Minister.
The Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, in turn, predicted that the economy of Russia will begin only by the end of 2016. Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin also warned that the peak of the economic crisis has not yet passed, and 2016 Russia brings “new risks”.
At the same time, the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev told about the end of the recession in November last. In December he admitted that the situation in the Russian economy amid falling oil prices “slightly deteriorated”. Two days before this statement, the speaker said that he sees nothing alarming in the change of the exchange rate.