For the period 2014-2017, which was Russia will lose about $600 billion due to a combination of two shocks — financial sanctions and falling oil prices, “Vedomosti” reports with reference to the assessment of Evsey Gurvich, and Ilya Prilepsko of the Economic expert group.
According to experts, losses from financial sanctions will amount to about $170 billion, the lost revenue from oil and gas exports — about $400 billion Estimates of capital losses from sanctions based on the price of oil at $50 per barrel, export revenues — in view of the sanctions at the same price in comparison with $100 per barrel, which focused on the government as a mid-level one and a half years ago, say “Vedomosti”.
According to experts, the reduction in gross capital inflows will amount to about $280 billion over 3.5 years, including about $85 billion in direct investments. This indirect impact accounts for three-quarters of these losses. The reduction of foreign direct investment, reducing opportunities for loans, reducing the capital inflow to the market of public debt increase the immediate effect of sanctions about three times, according to experts.
Experts underline the fact that sanctions affect the flow of capital regardless of the price of oil, but when oil prices drop, their effect increases.
According to experts, when expensive oil net capital losses from sanctions for 2014-2017 would represent about $160 billion, or 1.9% of GDP, at the low price of oil a few big losses — about $170 billion in GDP increased by half to 2.8% of GDP.
In addition, according to the calculations, the sanctions without the fall in oil prices would reduce investment in fixed capital by 3.2% during 2014-2017, the decline in oil prices without sanctions would lead to reduced investment by 22.6%, but was affected by two shocks at the same time investments will be lower by 24%, according to experts. Retail turnover in analogical calculations is reduced by 2,4, 17 and 18%, while inflation is accelerating at 3, 7 and 8%, respectively. On the real, the ruble, the sanctions have virtually no effect (decrease of 0.5%), but the drop in oil prices and sable by itself and in combination with sanctions reduces the rate by about the same amount — about 27%. Almost insensitive to the sanctions and the real incomes of the budget system: the decline in oil prices reduces them by 19%, sanctions for another 1%.
According to experts, the accumulated losses of economic growth as a result of such synergies during the four years will amount to 8.4 per cent, or an average of 2.1 percentage points per year.