The analyst of Gazprombank Vladimir Kravchuk waiting for a reversal in oil prices and their growth to $42,5 per barrel. “We recommend buying oil futures market prices (at the time of writing the report, about $34.5 per barrel) with a technical target in the range of $40,0-42,5 per barrel, which implies 25% potential growth,” he writes in the review, released on 5 February.
Technical indicators show the beginning of a great speculative play on the rise in the oil market, says Kravchuk. “The main catalyst for the growth of oil prices, in our opinion, is extremely unfair price of oil currently. A “fair” price of oil, calculated according to the historical correlation with the price of gold, now lies in the range of $95-100 per barrel. You can only say that in one way or another in the medium term, the oil market must be balanced in such a way that these correlations were performed again,” he explains.
According to Kravchuk, if it does not, in the longer term, oil prices reached much higher levels than the $100 per barrel. “I hear from all sides about information noise is very low oil prices that will continue for many years, is well described by the Arabic proverb “the dog barks — the caravan goes” — says the analyst.
Another important driver of growth, according to Kravchuk, can be a potential increase in geopolitical risks in the middle East, which will contribute not only to the growth of the oil but also gold.
The expected increase in oil prices will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, at least on the horizon 1-2 months, which in turn will have a positive impact on the Russian ruble debt market and, in particular, on the OFZ market, adds Kravchuk.
2016 began with a new collapse in oil prices — the price of a barrel of Brent in January, has broken through the $28 per barrel. For comparison: in 2014 peak oil was $114,99 per barrel in 2015 — $68,4. The excess of supply over demand, the slowdown of China’s economy, the lifting of the sanctions against Iran are forcing the experts to think that the period of low prices will last long. In the beginning of the year their forecasts on oil lowered Societe Generale, ING, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Its forecast for average oil prices decreased and the world Bank — from $51 to $37 per barrel. By the end of the year, analysts expect the market recovery. The consensus forecast Bloomberg, based on a survey of 42 economists, shows that experts are expecting the growth in oil prices up to $39,2 per barrel in the first quarter of 2016. By the end of the year prices will rise to $51 per barrel, according to economists.