U.S. analysts predicted the defeat of NATO in case of conflict in the Baltic States


In a new RAND report, published on the website of the Corporation, the results of an imaginary “military exercises”, which RAND staff conducted with experts in military and other areas from summer 2014 to spring 2015.

The report stated that if Russian forces manage to occupy Tallinn and Riga so fast, NATO “will remain few options for further action, and all the bad”: the counter-offensive, which is associated with the risk of a nuclear escalation of the conflict, or the recognition of temporary defeat.

In RAND believe that to avoid such development of events is possible if to send in the Baltic States about seven brigades, including three brigades armed with heavy weapons, as well as to provide these brigades with air support. According to RAND, that may be enough to prevent a quick attack on the territory of the Baltic States. According to the calculations of the RAND, such a measure could cost the Alliance $2.7 billion a year.

In late January, the European command of the armed forces of the United States (EUCOM) has published a new strategy, in which he listed the priorities for the next 3-5 years. Among the priorities of the first room marked “deterring Russian aggression”. The strategy States that the allies and partners of the USA “in several regions for a long time face of Russian challenges, so this is a global challenge that requires a global response”.

In early 2016 the Russian defense Ministry announced the creation of four new divisions in the West and Central areas in response to major NATO exercises near the Russian borders. A senior NATO General Petr Pavel, who heads the Alliance’s military Committee, said that the Russian side does not show the desire to meet the attempts of NATO to resume contacts between the military Alliance and Russia.