MOSCOW, 8 February. The baseline scenario of the project of the macro forecast of Ministry of economic development on the basis of which the government is ruled by budget of 2016 and to adopt a plan to support the economy this year, based on the Urals price of $40 per barrel. About it writes on Monday, the newspaper “Kommersant” with reference to calculations by the MAYOR.
Siluanov: the Ministry of Finance can start spending reserves, while maintaining oil prices at $30
According to the publication, the reference scenario assumes a Federal budget deficit at 5.1% of GDP, privatization of 0.9 trillion rubles, some strengthening of the ruble, the continuing recession in industry and in the economy in General, save about 1.5 trillion rubles in the Reserve Fund with the unsealing of the national welfare Fund (NWF). This option budget projections for $25 per barrel (a conservative scenario of the project the Ministry of economic development) was prepared.
In the basic version of the forecast, the Ministry expects in 2016 the GDP is 0.8% decline in output in industry, by 0.3%, inflation in the range of 8-8,5%. In General, oil at $40 per barrel should bring some stabilization of rates of falling of economy, but certainly not “bounce”. Investment in this scenario will fall in 2016 by 6% (in 2015 – by 8.4%), the volume of public services will be reduced by 1.5% (in 2015 – 2.1%), real wages by 3.5% (after 9.5% in 2015), real disposable income will fall at the same rate of 3.9% per year (in 2015, 4%). The retail turnover almost stabilized – drop the forecast for 2016 is 2.9% versus 10% in 2015, labour productivity will not change.
The situation at $25 per barrel of Urals is worse, the newspaper added. Inflation will be slightly higher (in the range of 8.8-9.2 percent). Investment in 2016 in this scenario will fall only slightly slower than in 2015 (6.7% compared to 8.4% in 2015), as the turnover of retail (5.9 percent). In the service drop will increase to 3.1%, the industry will reduce production by 1.1%. Most suffer in this scenario the real disposable incomes of the population – the rate of decline will increase to 4.7%, and the rate of decline in real wages will be reduced to 4.8% per annum.
The current exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar the Ministry of economic development considers undervalued: in the base forecast average annual exchange rate is 68.2 per rubles per dollar (i.e. $40 per barrel under monotonic growth of oil the ruble to strengthen by the end of the year to $66 and 67 rubles per dollar), in a conservative – 75,7 rubles per dollar (i.e. could be slightly stronger, even with some reduction in oil prices), emphasizes Kommersant.
Oil prices over 40 years