The government has prepared a final turnaround plan for Putin


FNB has come under crisis

The government is considering the national welfare Fund (NWF) as a source of financing of anti-crisis measures. This follows from the latest version of the anti-crisis plan, which could see , she trained in the government to discuss President Vladimir Putin’s February 10. In previous versions of SWF did not appear.

The draft anti-crisis plan proposed in March 2016 to allocate to 39.8 billion rubles from the NWF for the purchase of about 292 locomotives. Money can be allocated “within implementation of the investment project of JSC “RZD” for the purchase of traction rolling stock”. The plan notes that due to this measure will continue for 60 thousand jobs on locomotive building plants and manufacturers of components for traction rolling stock.

NWF money for the purchase of locomotives were promised “the Russian Railways” in 2014. Passport of the investment project, approved before the crisis, provided the volume of capital investments — 203,6 billion rubles for 2015-2017. According to the chamber in 2015, was supposed to allocate from the NWF 60.2 billion roubles, or 29.6% of the project cost. For NWF funds, the Russian Railways promised to pay off their bonds with a maturity of 25 years and with a minimum yield of “inflation + 1%”. In 2016-2017 investment project involves the use of own capital of JSC “Russian Railways” — 143,4 billion rubles, or 70,4% of the project cost (i.e., the allocation of funds from NWF after 2015, according to the chamber, not intended). Just 2015-2017 RZD was going to buy 1508 locomotives.

RZD in 2015 received 60.2 billion rubles from the NWF was intended, confirms the representative monopoly. But, according to him, in November 2015, the government approved the investment program of RZD for 2016, which provides 39,8 billion rubles from the NWF for the purchase of locomotives — the same amount there is now in the anti-crisis plan, but it is not specified whether we are talking about the same money or new. “We are the government approved the investment program, why wait for money”, — said the representative of RZD. RZD’s own funds on the project in 2016 $ 29.2 billion rubles, he said.

The chamber in August of 2015 indicated that the rate at which reduced the amount of purchase of import-dependent products, will not ensure the full independence of Railways from the supply of imported components in the three-year project implementation period for the acquisition of traction rolling stock. In addition, according to the chamber, “the implementation of an infrastructure project at the expense of the NWF is not the actual support of domestic producers”. The fact that various series of diesel locomotives and of electric locomotives, acquired the Railways, from 60 to 80% involves buying by import-dependent components of the products mentioned in the report of the accounts chamber.

Representatives of the Ministry of Finance and economic development Ministry on Monday did not explain whether the new article of expenditures from the NWF or is it just an attempt for additional protection pre-commitments by the government. However, in the lists of the anti-crisis plan of the Russian Railways was the only company from the recipient of the FNB for infrastructure projects.

Plans are getting more expensive

On a rolling basis to the government anti-crisis proposals from agencies the cost of anti-crisis plan is gradually increasing. As of Monday, February 8, the total cost of the plan is estimated at 827,42 bn (self-government). The first versions are familiar with , was estimated at 737 billion rubles.

In the latest version of the proposed four sources of funding. Due to the current budget proposed to Finance 446,87 bn In mostly budget loans to the regions (310 billion rubles) and to support the automotive industry 86 bn anti-Crisis Fund may be 297,4 billion rubles. But the Fund itself the government has not yet been established. Even 136,65 bn invited to seek “in the execution of the budget”. That is, this is the money that may appear to the government as a result of the current sequestration budget spending (the government has not yet spent). The latter source of funding, specified in the government documents, is NWF funds in the amount of 39.8 billion rubles.

In the documents of the anti-crisis plan does not specify what macroeconomic conditions may planned financing. The message of the newspaper “Kommersant” that the anti-crisis plan for this year is calculated based on the average Urals prices to $40 per barrel, the Federal budget deficit at 5.1% of GDP, privatization of 0.9 trillion rubles, interlocutors in the government has denied. According to them, the plan was calculated without reference to macroeconomic conditions.

2 February, the Ministry of Finance has contested a significant portion of the proposed anti-crisis spending, but they still were in the latest version of the plan. The most expensive application is not supported by the Ministry of Finance, provides for additional financing of agriculture by 23 billion rubles Then, the Department did not support additional subsidies and discounts on machinery purchased from domestic producers (10 billion rubles), as well as another additional capitalization of OJSC Rosagroleasing (2 billion rubles). In the latest version of the plan the agricultural support has not diminished. Now the plan includes a request for additional capitalization of Rosselkhozbank 10 billion rubles.

The first part of the plan is more like the attempt by industry lobbyists to create articles that are protected from cuts in the current budget. Of items providing direct financial support to individual companies, is becoming more. For example, there was a request for support from the bailout Fund to 1 billion rubles, LLC “CHTZ-Uraltrak” (part of the group of Uralvagonzavod). Goal — “preventing the collapse of productive activities and the emergence of the negative social impact of the Chelyabinsk region”. Guarantee that all these points will be reflected in the revised budget for 2016, the government did not give. On the contrary, as it became known , on Tuesday the first Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov had intended to hold a meeting on restructuring of the budget. Prior to this, on changing the structure of the budget in the White house didn’t say.

The anti-crisis plan of the government

Lists only those articles that have quantitative indicators

1. Implementation of additional measures in the sphere of employment (volume and source of Finance 5 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

2. Providing the regions of subventions to the social benefits of registered unemployed people (5.7 billion rubles from the Federal budget).

3. Medicines of HIV-infected (21.5 billion rubles from the Federal budget).

4. The provision of medicines citizens suffering from haemophilia, cystic fibrosis, pituitary dwarfism, Gaucher disease and other rare diseases (8.5 billion rubles from the Federal budget).

5. The provision of medicines citizens, including beneficiaries, and payment of costs associated with the weakening of the ruble, with the purchase of imported drugs (up to 16 billion rubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

6. Update sanitary vehicles (up to 5 billion rubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

7. Medicines of individuals who experienced high-tech operations, in the first year (to 4.7 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

8. Assistance in organization of summer rest and health improvement of children in difficult life situation (6 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

9. Assistance of territorial grid companies in connection with the phased abolition of the mechanism of the “last mile” (to 6.3 billion rubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

10. The increase of capital of Rosselkhozbank in the framework of measures on import substitution in agriculture (up to 10 billion rubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

11. To support the automotive industry (88,59 billion rubles from the Federal budget of 49.1 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

12. Support light industry (1.4 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

13. Support vehicle engineering (up to 10 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

14. Support agricultural machinery, including updating of Park of agricultural universities (10.5 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

15. Support domestic and inbound tourism in Russia (0,75 billion rubles from the Federal budget up to 6 billion roubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

16. Partial repayment of loans companies taken for replenishment of circulating assets, and (or) financing of current production activity (up to 2.2 billion rubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

17. Support regional airlines (to 0.65 billion roubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

18. Purchase of traction rolling stock in the framework of the implementation of the investment project of Russian Railways in 2016 (39,8 billion rubles. of NWF).

19. Elimination of restriction of navigation on the inland waterways in Russia (2.7 billion rubles in 2016 from the anti-Crisis Fund).

20. Additional capitalization of the development Fund of industry (20 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

21. Subsidizing the mortgage on the primary housing market (up to 16.5 billion rubles in 2016., the source of financing will be defined later).

22. The creation of new places in schools under the applicable program for 2016-2025 (to 50 billion roubles, the source of financing will be defined later).

23. The creation of the Agency for technological development (0.2 billion rubles from the funds allocated to the Ministry of industry and trade).

24. Support of LLC “CHTZ-Uraltrak” in 2016 (1 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

25. Establishing the VAT rates to 0% on the transport of passengers and Luggage by railway transport within Russia (11 billion rubles — the budget shortfall).

26. The provision of budget loans to regions (310 billion rubles from the Federal budget).

27. Measures to support single-industry towns (7.2 billion rubles from the Federal budget of 5.6 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

28. Improvement of municipal infrastructure, including in small cities (3.4 billion rubles — funds of the Fund of assistance to reforming of housing and communal services).

29. The increase in the volume of state support for improvement of communal infrastructure (3 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

30. Assistance to enterprises of transport engineering in the production of innovative freight rolling stock (3 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

31. Support for IT industry (10 billion rubles for the card users of the radio spectrum according to the results in 2016 auctions to obtain licenses for provision of communication services).

32. Subsidies to buyers of freight railway rolling stock (7 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

33. Support GKNPTs Khrunichev (7.4 billion rubles from anti-recessionary Fund).

34. The increase in 2016 the volume of state guarantees on loans for legal entities (up to 20 billion rubles).